MNI RBNZ Review-Nov 2025: On Hold If Progress As Expected

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The MPC voted 5-1 to cut rates 25bp to 2.25%, as was widely expected. The discussion was between a hold or 25bp of easing with no consideration for another 50bp cut. The dissenter voted to hold policy. 
• The updated OCR projections showed Q1 at 2.25% and there is only one meeting in the quarter (18 February). Then Q2 is 2.20% and Q3 2.23%, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected then the RBNZ is now on hold. 
• The profile helps the MPC to keep its optionality though with outgoing Governor Hawkesby noting that the 2.20% OCR projection signals an easing bias.
• Compared with levels prior to yesterday’s RBNZ decision, pricing is 7-17bps higher across meetings, again led by late-2026 contracts. Notably, September 2026 now assigns a 25bps hike a 21% probability.