MNI RBNZ Preview-Nov 2025: 25bp Cut & Keeping Options Open

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The RBNZ is likely to cut rates 25bp on 26 November to 2.25%, edging below its estimate of "neutral". 2/24 analysts on Bloomberg are forecasting 50bp. The data released since the October decision have been consistent with a gradual but soft recovery and importantly close to the RBNZ's August expectations and thus there is unlikely to be another outsized 50bp easing. 
• The focus will be on revisions to the RBNZ’s OCR path. Q1 will be the interesting quarter. There is only one meeting scheduled in Q1 on 18 February and a 2.1% would signal further easing.
• The market currently has 27bps of easing priced for November's meeting and a cumulative 35bps by February 2026.
• This is Governor Hawkesby’s last meeting and so optionality is likely to be retained not only given heightened economic uncertainty but so as not to tie the hands of new governor Anna Breman, from Sweden’s Riksbank, who takes over from 1 December.