MNI RBNZ Preview-July 2025: Likely On Hold

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The sell-side consensus is for the RBNZ to remain on hold tomorrow, which is also consistent with market pricing. There are some sell-side forecasters looking for a rate cut tomorrow, whilst most of those who see the RBNZ on hold, see risks of further cuts as we progress through 2025. For this meeting, our own bias is for the central bank to hold policy rates steady.
• Recent inflation outcomes arguably provide the strongest signal that the RBNZ should hold pat at tomorrow’s policy meeting outcome.  Further on the inflation front was a tick up in inflation expectations for Q2. We are coming off a low base (just up from 2%), but the central bank may want to see Q3 trends (this data gets released on Aug 7) before drawing further conclusions as to whether trends are shifting or not. 
• In contrast, growth indicators are still arguing for easier policy settings. The central bank is likely to be comfortable to preserve policy space at this juncture and assess upcoming inflation trends. It is likely to leave the door ajar for further policy support given headwinds to domestic growth. 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI RBNZ Preview July 2025.pdf