NORWAY: MNI Publishes Election Preview
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Norwegian voters go to the polls on 8 September to elect a new parliament or ‘Storting’. Incumbent Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre is seeking a second term in office for his centre-left Labour party amid rising public concerns regarding economic inequality, the cost of living, the labour market and tax rates. On the right, the main opposition centre-right Conservative party is at risk of falling behind the right-wing populist Progress Party into third place for the first time since the 2009 election.
In this preview, we offer a short primer on Norway’s electoral system and parties, analysis of opinion polling trends in the run-up to the vote, potential post-election scenarios with assigned probabilities, a financial market overview and analyst views.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Aug05 $1.1425(E1.6bln), $1.1500(E1.4bln), $1.1550(E1.7bln), $1.1585-00(E2.5bln); Aug06 $1.1500-10(E1.6bln)
- USD/JPY: Aug06 Y152.00($1.0bln); Aug07 Y147.65($1.0bln), Y148.00-15($1.7bln), Y148.50($1.1bln)
- EUR/GBP: Aug05 Gbp0.8650-70(E1.3bln)
- AUD/USD: Aug05 $0.6465-80(A$1.1bln); Aug07 $0.6600(A$2.0bln)
BONDS: TD Maintain Bias for Lower Bund & Gilt Yields At Year-End
TD Securities note that bond markets “will continue to balance the impact of fiscal and tariffs”. They see “more scope for the latter to weigh on growth in the near term” and look for 10-Year Bund and 10-Year gilt yields to finish ’25 at 2.30% and 3.80%, respectively.
US TSYS: Stabilization Before A Thin Docket Ahead After Last Week’s Swings
- Treasuries have recently pared losses to further limit moves from Friday’s close with the nonfarm payrolls report and its hugely weak two-month revisions digested. For a succinct summary of last week's swings seen after a patient Fed and weak payrolls report, see the MNI US Macro Weekly (link here).
- We touch on it more in the STIR bullet but President Trump says he will announce a new Fed Governor and BLS commissioner in the coming days following a surprise resignation/termination on Friday.
- Cash yields are 1-2bp higher on the day, with 2Y yields for instance more than 25bp before pre-payrolls levels.
- 10Y yields, currently at 4.232%, appeared to meet some support at 4.20% on Friday, touching 4.2002%. It last breached 4.20% on Jul 1 and before that late Apr/early May.
- TYU5 trades at 112-05+ (-01) having pulled back off an overnight high of 112-12, on solid cumulative volumes of 510k as non-US participants caught up with Friday’s price action.
- Friday’s rally punched through 111-14+ (Jul 22/30 high) whilst the overnight high stopped just short of resistance at a bull trigger of 112-12+ (Jul 1 high). There’s further resistance seen shortly after with 112-15 (61.8% retrace of Apr 7-11 sell-off).
- Data: Factory orders Jun (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: None scheduled
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $82B 13W, $73B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
