US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Drafts ISR-Hamas Ceasefire Resolution
- The US has drafted an Israel-Hamas ceasefire resolution to counter a proposal from Algeria, backed by Arab countries, which is expected to come in front of the United Nations Security Council today.
- The domestic reaction to the Biden administration’s position on Israel will be in the spotlight next week when Michigan votes in the Democratic presidential primary. Michigan’s large Arab and Muslim-American population, the vast majority of whom voted for Biden in 2020, may be critical to determining the winner of the November’s presidential election.
- President Biden told reporters yesterday he would be "happy" to meet with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to discuss the USD$95 billion foreign aid bill which has stalled in the House of Representatives, "if he has anything to say."
- Biden holds a significant cash advantage over former President Donald Trump as the latter contends with the costs of his various legal bills.
- The Biden administration is expected to relax rules for the country’s switch to electric vehicles as the market fails to transition to EVs as quickly as the White House had anticipated.
- 2.7 million workers are predicted leave the workforce in a surprise second wave of retirements.
- Domestic semiconductor investment is flagging ahead of November’s general election where Democrats had hoped to highlight a manufacturing boom sparked by the Biden administration's industrial policy.
- Poll of the Day: Biden has strengthened slightly against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.
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MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$126.1B
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 1.3465 @ 16:22 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 1.3407/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
- SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
- SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope
USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and has opened 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. Initial support is at 1.3407, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6639 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6584 @ 16:20 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
- SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6639, the 50-day EMA.
