MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump's FY2026 Budget Expected Today

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Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump will attend the RNC Spring Gala at Mar-a-Lago this evening as Congressional Republicans start to tentatively push back against his legislative priorities. 
• Trump removed National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, the first significant shakeup of a more stable second administration. Waltz struggled to ride out the controversy of the Signal chat story, but the move may also reflect an ideological pivot within Trump’s national security team, away from Waltz’s traditional conservative foreign policy position.
• Potential replacements include Trump's frontline negotiator, Steve Witkoff, and State Department official Michael Anton - a ‘MAGA’ favourite.
• Markets have been receptive to reports that the US and China are sounding out trade discussions.
• The EU’s trade commissioner said Brussels would offer to increase purchases of US goods by €50bn to address the “problem” in the trade relationship.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned Tokyo could use its US Treasuries as leverage in trade talks with Washington.
• Trump is expected to release a “skinny” version of his Fiscal Year 2026 presidential budget today, providing the first look at his priorities for funding the government.
• House Republicans are off to an inauspicious start to their reconciliation markups, delaying three crucial committee sessions.
• The final US-Ukraine reconstruction agreement takes a harder line on Russia than early drafts, appearing to open the door for future US security assistance.
• Poll of the Day: Trump’s approval rating has stabilised slightly.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF