MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Whips Senate Ahead Of OBBB Votes

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Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump returned to Washington after a truncated but cordial NATO summit, which saw the alliance pledge to ramp up defence spending and Trump promise to uphold Article 5.
• 16:00 ET 21:00 BST: Trump will hold a White House event for the OBBB, highlighting popular proposals and downplaying negative polling.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is facing a rebellion from ‘Medicaid moderates’ who rejected a USD$15 billion ‘stabilization fund’ to offset cuts to the Medicaid provider tax.
• Trump struck a positive tone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at NATO, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio threw cold water on new Russia sanctions.
• President Trump is aggressively defending the effectiveness of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, despite a leaked Pentagon report suggesting limited long-term impact.
• Trump said US officials will meet with Iranian counterparts next week, without elaborating, and downplayed the need for a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.
• CEA Chair Stephen Miran said Trump’s policies will reduce deficits by up to USD$11 trillion over 10 years.
• The BPC said the X-date will most likely occur between August 15 and October 3.
• President Trump again warned that he could announce a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell early, potentially undermining the Fed’s monetary policy independence by steering expectations on rates.
• There has been little progress on a US-Japan trade deal ahead of a seventh round of talks.
• Poll of the Day: Military strikes in Iran could negatively impact Trump's approval. 

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