US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Upends Middle East Policy Outlook

Feb-05 13:20
  • The US Postal Service suspended inbound package shipments from China and Hong Kong as US President Donald Trump’s 10% across-the-board tariffs kicked in.
  • Trump said he is in “no rush” to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping but the pair could speak as soon as today.
  • Peter Navarro, a key Trump trade strategist, said tariffs on China would proceed in a "measured way."
  • The Senate is on track to confirm Scott Turner to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development and Russell Vought to lead the Office of Management and Budget.
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will deliver a press conference this morning amid concerns the Senate could outflank the House on budget reconciliation strategy.
  • Dozens of Senate Republicans will travel to Mar-a-Lago on Friday to advocate for Trump’s backing of their two-bill reconciliation plan.
  • Trump, speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, appeared to explode decades of US Middle East policy and contradict his own ‘America First’ foreign policy principle by declaring the US will lead the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
  • Trump signed an executive order returning administration policy back to ‘maximum pressure” on Iran. He indicated this morning that he would prefer a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
  • Poll of the Day: Every Trump nominee has close to a 100% implied probability of confirmation.  

Full article: US DAILY BRIEF

Historical bullets

SONIA: Call fly buyer

Jan-06 13:17

SFIU5 95.45/95.75/96.05c fly, bought for 5.75 in 6k.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 2Y Sale

Jan-06 13:14
  • -2,500 TUH5 102-25.5, sell through 102-25.62 post time bid at 0757:02ET, DV01 $90,0000. The 2Y contract trades 102-25.38 last (+1.5).

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 6-12 January

Jan-06 13:12

MNI's Political Risk team has published its first Week Ahead of 2025, looking at the major political events scheduled over the coming seven days. Includes info on the US Congress certifying President-elect Donald Trump's election win; Canadian PM Justin Trudeau believed to be on the verge of resigning; and Italian PM Meloni hosting US President Joe Biden in his final overseas trip in office. 

Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-WeekAhead6-12Jan.pdf

Related by topic

US
Energy Data
Gasoil
Marine Oil
Oil Positioning
OPEC
Freight
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Oil Options
US Natgas
TTF ICE
Asia LNG
Gas Positioning