US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Tariffs Struck Down By Trade Court
May-29 12:31
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Executive summary:
- A panel of judges on the US Court of International Trade yesterday ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not provide President Trump with “unbounded authority” to apply his so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on dozens of trading partners.
- While the ruling undercuts Trump's primary leverage to restructure global trade, the prevailing view is that the ruling will shift focus to sector-specific tariffs - a slower process that provides less flexibility in tailoring country-specific tariff regimes.
- At 13:00 ET 18:00 BST, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will deliver her first press conference since May 22. Expect her to accuse the trade court of judicial overreach
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) could hold a vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill as soon as the week starting June 9.
- The US and Iran are working to finalise a preliminary agreement for a new US-Iran nuclear accord known as “The Muscat Framework”. The optics are positive, but Trump appeared to row back on his suggestion that a deal would be announced immediately.
- Despite a red light from Trump, Israel has reportedly instructed the IDF to ensure readiness for aerial attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.
- Trump has given Russia two weeks to demonstrate seriousness about a ceasefire with Ukraine, keeping a punitive sanctions package on the back burner.
- Poll of the Day: Americans are evenly divided on whether Democrats or Republicans are better on the economy.
Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF
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GILTS: Initial Resistance In Futures Holds For A Second Day
Apr-29 12:29
Gilt futures continue to respect initial resistance at Friday’s high (93.34), topping out at 93.33 for a second consecutive session.
- Still, the bullish technical phase in the contract remains intact, with pullbacks remaining relatively shallow at this stage.
- If the move does develop further, through a break of Friday’s high, focus would quickly shift to the nearby 76.4% retracement of the April 7-9 sell off (93.44).
- Yields are 1-3bp lower on the day, with 10s outperforming and 50s lagging.
- Gilt bulls eye 4.460% in 10-Year yields.
- 2s10s continue to trade around 16bp below cycle closing highs, although the spread has failed to close back below 60bp since the break above in early April, last ~62.8bp.
- 5s30s is ~10bp below cycle closing highs, last 128bp.
- As we have previously noted, while fundamentals (the potential for a more activist BoE easing cycle, tepid economic growth and ongoing fiscal fragility) point to further curve steepening, already crowded steeper plays and apparent increased activism from public agencies (Treasury, DMO & the BoE) when it comes to limiting long end yield spikes presents risks/limitations to such moves, at least in the short-term.
EGB SYNDICATION: 3.00% Jun-49 Green OAT: Priced
Apr-29 12:14
- Reoffer: 87.014 to yield 3.834%
- Spread set earlier at 3.00% Jul-49 OAT + 13bps (guidance was +15bp area)
- Size: E5bln (MNI expects E4-8bln)
- Books in excess of E74bln (inc JLM interest)
- Settlement: May 7, 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: Barclays, BNPP (B&D), BofA, CA-CIB, HSBC, Natixis
- Timing: MNI expects to price today
Source: Bloomberg and MNI colour
GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP217.0mln of the 1.25% Nov-54 linker sold.
Apr-29 12:03
- GBP225.0mln had been on offer.
- This leaves GBP15.050bln of the linker in issue.
