US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Taps Loyalist Miran For Fed
Aug-08 12:34
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- President Donald Trump will sign a peace accord with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
- Trump nominated CEA Chair Stephen Miran to fill the Federal Reserve Board of Governors seat vacated by Adriana Krugler.
- Trump signed two banking and finance-related Executive Orders yesterday. Trump called on Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to resign, citing controversy over his investments in China.
- USTR Jamieson Greer penned an op-ed detailing the rationale for the Trump administration’s trade policy.
- The Trump administration delivered another blow to Switzerland by imposing tariffs on one-kilo gold bars.
- An underreported decision by OMB Director Russ Vought to replace the US Chief Statistician could further undermine confidence in the government’s economic data.
- The US will end 'tariff stacking' on Japan and cut auto levies. India has paused plans to buy US weapons and aircraft.
- Trump called for a new census that would exclude undocumented immigrants from its count, escalating a partisan arms race over Congressional maps.
- Trump indicated he is willing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present.
- The US will not intervene in an Israeli plan to occupy the entire Gaza Strip.
- The US has issued new sanctions targeting Iran's banking and oil sectors.
- Poll of the Day: Favourability of Democrats hits a low not seen for either party since 1992.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Punts Tariffs And Pivots On Ukraine
Jul-09 12:23
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Executive summary:
- President Donald Trump will hold a White House lunch today with the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal to discuss “commercial opportunities”.
- Markets have largely shrugged off Trump’s latest tariff ultimatum, likely assessing that major trade partners will strike preliminary agreements before the new August 1 deadline or receive another extension.
- Markets have been less sanguine about the prospect of a punitive new tariff on copper imports, designed to reshore copper production in the United States.
- South Korea is eyeing an in-person meeting between Trump and President Lee Jae-myung. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tokyo and Washington will "swiftly proceed with negotiations towards the newly set August 1 deadline".
- Trump told reporters yesterday he would "probably" tell the European Union within two days what tariff rate it can expect.
- Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the slight favourite to be nominated as the next Fed chair.
- Senate leaders are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this afternoon as negotiators in Qatar struggle to make a breakthrough on a Gaza ceasefire.
- Trump is leaning closer to endorsing a new Russia sanctions package. The primary concern for the White House is how to calibrate secondary sanctions without dramatically increasing tensions with China and India.
- Poll of the Day: Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for social services.
Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF
FOREX: Westpac Recommend Short GBP/AUD On Move Higher
Jul-09 12:22
Westpac recommend entering GBP/AUD shorts on a move to 2.0920, with a stop loss at 2.1050 and target of 2.0500.
- They note that “GBP/AUD has been repeatedly cresting into well-defined resistance in recent weeks. The RBA, against expectations, kept rates on hold in July and markets have since shifted to a full cut for August, though crucially it depends on Q2 CPI (30 July) not surprising too much on the upside.”
- Meanwhile, “UK PM Starmer suffered a damaging rebellion over proposed welfare reforms, damaging his authority, and raising the potential for a renewal of the “political risk” premium in GBP/Gilts”.
US TSY FUTURES: Huge Treasury 5s10s Inter-Commodity Spread
Jul-09 12:22
- Sources report huge inter-commodity spread went up on the CME Direct platform
- Symbol FYT: trades 35,311 FVU5 vs. TYU5 on a 3:2 ratio (105k FVU5 vs. 70k TYU5), 0.002 last.
- Checking direction, but curves are looking mildly steeper this morning, 5s10s currently +.037 at 42.704.
