US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Spikes Uncertainty With Fed Rhetoric
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- At 16:30 ET 21:30 BST, President Donald Trump will participate in a White House ‘swearing-in’ ceremony for SEC chair Paul Atkins.
- Trump noted yesterday that he will attend Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome - A first international trip that will give world leaders a rare chance for face time with Trump.
- The IMF will unveil its first World Economic Outlook since Trump returned to office at 09:00 ET 14:00 BST.
- VP Vance and negotiator Steve Witkoff are expected to meet the Qatari PM today to discuss the Middle East.
- Trump is backing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid another escalation in the Signal controversy and reports of "chaos" at the Pentagon.
- US stock markets slumped again after Trump escalated rhetoric towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump’s comments came after economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that Trump was “studying” if Powell could be fired.
- Trump provided some clarity on actions considered “non-tariff cheating”.
- Delegations from South Korea, India, and Thailand will meet Trump officials this week, with India emerging as a possible trade win.
- The Treasury Department is expected to send Congress its X-date projection next week.
- The White House is expected to send a $9.3 billion recissions package to Congress this week.
- The US, UK, France, and Ukraine will hold Ukraine war talks in London on Wednesday.
- Poll of the Day: Trump’s approval remains relatively stable this week.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
