US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Signals More Restrained Tariff Plan
Apr-15 12:02
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- President Donald Trump confirmed yesterday that Commerce Department probes are underway that are likely to result in new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Probe results are expected within 270 days.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed speculation that foreign nations were selling US Treasuries and noted that the Treasury Department has a toolkit it can use if action is needed to stabilise the bond market.
- Bessent said he is prioritizing bilateral trade deals with the United Kingdom, Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan.
- European Commission Trade Chief Maros Sefcovic said the EU remains “ready for a fair deal” with the US after meetings in Washington.
- Vice President JD Vance said there is a “good chance” of striking a bilateral trade deal with London.
- China is expected to cancel orders of Boeing aircraft and US-made aircraft-related equipment.
- President Trump is preparing a rescission package that will direct Congress to undo USD$9.3 billion in funding.
- Republicans are considering a move to cut taxes on health providers that could save more than USD$600 billion over ten years.
- Nvidia announced it would manufacture advanced Artificial Intelligence chips in the US.
- Trump envoy Steve Witkoff said Russia is open to a "permanent peace" deal with Ukraine.
- Trump warned of a "harsh" response to Iran if there is no movement toward a new nuclear accord.
- Poll of the Day: More voters trust Democrats in Congress than their Republican counterparts to handle the economy.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
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