US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Orders US Strikes On Iran
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- At 13:00 ET 18:00 BST, President Donald Trump will huddle with his national security team in the Oval Office.
- On June 24, the US military conducted a series of strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, marking a historic escalation between the United States and Iran.
- On the ground, there are few signs of Israel dialling down its operation against Iranian targets.
- Trump officials stressed the strikes are not the start of an “open-ended” war, but Trump hinted at regime change if Iran doesn't submit to unconditional surrender.
- It is too early to determine the success of the strikes, but the prevailing view amongst experts is that such an attack is unlikely to permanently neutralise Iran's nuclear programme, without a parallel diplomatic solution.
- Iran has few good options. The most likely near-term response is counterstrikes on US military assets in the region, which Tehran may believe can be calibrated below the threshold of broader escalation.
- The Senate Parliamentarian will today start the Byrd Bath on the Senate Finance Committee’s portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill – the centrepiece of Trump’s domestic agenda.
- Trump is due to fly to Europe tomorrow for a victory lap at the NATO leaders’ summit, after NATO members agreed to hike defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
- Poll of the Day: Slightly more Americans disapprove than approve of the US strikes on Iran.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
