US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Looks To LatAm To Tame Inflation

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The Council of State, France's supreme administrative court, has rejected Marine Le Pen's appeal against her immediate ineligibility to run for political office after she was found guilty of embezzlement in March. The sentence saw the parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) given four years in prison (two suspended), a EUR500k fine, and, most politically relevant: a five-year ban on running for public office. The Council's ruling that the ban is effective immediately means she cannot run in any snap legislative or presidential election. Le Pen's full appeal hearing takes place from 13 Jan-12 Feb 2026.

• This ruling may have less of an immediate electoral impact, given the prospect of a snap election has receded after PM Sebastien Lecornu delivered concessions to the centre-left Socialist Party in his 14 Oct general policy speech.
• Before her sentencing, Le Pen had been almost a certainty to make the second-round run off, and hypothetical polling showed her performing well against some of the most likely candidates from the centre/left.
• With Le Pen's absence confirmed for now, RN President Jordan Bardella (who will be 31 at the time of the next election due by April 2027) is next in line. It may be too early to try and determine Bardella's prospects in a hypothetical second round. Former PM and centre-right Horizons party leader Edouard Philippe, who has stated his intention to run in 2027, could prove his toughest opponent. 

Bessent's optimism on growth, laying out the groundwork for US growth akin to the "late 1800's or 1990's" is helping the USD higher at the margins and pressing EURUSD toward flat (thereby erasing the ~40 pip gains at the European open). The better-than-expected Empire Manufacturing print will also be helping.

• US 10y yields finding a base at 4.00% has proved a key catalyst, although markets have looked through the persistent S/T uptrend in equities across Wednesday.
• Note this is the reverse of the early NY trade yesterday, wherein the USD traded stronger across much of Europe, but weaker into US hours. In USD Index terms, the price is still weaker on the day, although well off pullback lows.
• We don't expect today's Fedspeak to spring particular surprises. QT-related commentary, realistically from Miran, could be interesting after Powell indicated it may be nearing an end in the coming months late yesterday. More notable will be the Fed's Beige Book at 1900BST/1400ET, with anecdotal evidence of heightened importance amidst a dearth of government data releases.