US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Issues Raft Of Tariff Announcements

• Some order flow are hitting the Treasuries, but nothing big, TYU5 is sold in 4k, FVA 3k, USA 1k.
• US Emini is seeing some small momentum selling, now targets Yesterday's low at 6223.25, which is also Yesterday's Open.
• This is helping the USDJPY back at the 143.00 figure, but all within ranges across multi Assets.

SOFR & Treasury option volumes turning heavy in the lead up to the NY open, better put interest earlier. Some large at-the-money call condors in Sep'25 SOFR, 5Y midcurves with various dealers upping their rate cut calls (GS sees 3 by Dec). Underlying Tsy futures firmer, SOFR mixed with front end firmer after decent buying over the last hour. Projected rate cut pricing gaining vs. late Monday (*) levels: Jul'25 steady at -5.3bp, Sep'25 at -29.3bp (-28.6bp), Oct'25 at -47.3bp (-46.3bp), Dec'25 at -68.4bp (-66.8bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys, 4.0 vs. 95.985/0.15%
  • Block, 10,000 SFRH6 96.00/96.50 put spds, 18.0
  • over +45,000 SFRU5 95.87/95.93/96.00/96.12 broken call condors, 0.0 ref 96.00
  • 2,000 0QN5 96.68/96.87 put spds ref 96.94
  • 2,000 SFRN5 96.00/96.25 call spds ref 96.005
  • Block, 12,000 SFRQ5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call condors, 2.5 ref 96.005
  • Block/screen 6,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.75/95.87 2x3x1 put flys, 1.25 net
  • 4,000 0QN5 97.06/97.18 call spds vs. 96.68/96.81 put spds, 0.5 net - call spd over
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 96.00 straddles, 48.0 vs. 96.35/0.52%
  • +2,000 SFRQ5 95.81/95.87/96.00 broken put trees, 4
  • +8,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12 put spds, 8.5 ref 96.00
  • +2,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25 2x1 put spds, 3.25 ref 96.325
• Treasury Options:
  • 10,000 TYU5 108/110 put spds, 12 ref 112-07.5
  • -15,000 wk1 FV 109.25/109.5/109.75/110 call condors, 3.5 vs. 109-03.5/0.10%
  • +2,500 FVU5 105/106.5 put spds, 2.5 vs. 109-01.25/0.04%
  • +5,000 TYQ5 112.5 calls, 39 vs. 112-10/0.46%
  • +2,000 TYQ5 110.5/112 call spds vs. 109.5/111.5 put spds, 50 net vs. 112-10/0.54%
  • +2,000 TYQ5 109 puts, 3 ref 112-04/0.08%
  • +2,500 TYU5 109.5 puts, 13
  • -1,500 FVQ5 108.5 puts, 14.5 vsd. 109-01.5/0.29%
  • +5,000 TYU5 107/108 put spds, 2 ref 112-10.5
  • +10,000 FVQ5 108 puts, 6.5 ref 109-03.25
  • +2,000 TYQ5 113.25 calls, 23 vs. 112-10/0.60%
  • +5,000 wk1 TY 111.25/111.5 put spds, 3 vs. 112-04.5/0.10

FX Exchange traded Option, looking for Yen Upside, covers all the July CB Meetings, even the BoE's 7th Aug meeting.

• JPYUSD (8th Aug) 73.5c, bought for 0.28 in ~1.2k.
• Underlying trades at 70.60.