MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Faces First Ballot Box Test

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Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump will have lunch with Vice President JD Vance at 12:30 ET 17:30 BST before holding an Executive Order signing session at 15:30 ET 20:30 GMT. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will brief reporters at 12:00 ET 17:00 GMT.
• Special elections in Florida and Wisconsin today will provide the first temperature check on the Trump administration’s performance. A Democrat resolution in the Senate will offer a first opportunity for Republican dissent on Trump’s trade agenda. 
• President Trump and his Cabinet are expected to appear in the White House Rose Garden tomorrow at 15:00 ET 20:00 GMT for a ceremony to announce Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer are expected to deliver detailed reports to Trump today that will theoretically inform Trump’s decision on tariffs.
• The “Big Six” tax officials will meet for the second time in a week today to discuss Trump’s agenda. The meeting comes ahead of an expected decision by the Senate Parliamentarian on whether a budget manoeuvre known as ‘current policy baseline’ will be permitted in budget reconciliation.
• The White House is viewing the inclusion of a debt limit bill in the reconciliation package as leverage for getting Trump's agenda across the line in Congress. 
• Poll of the Day: Trump's approval rating on the economy is underwater for the first time. 

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