US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Continues Hawkish Pivot On Russia
Sep-24 12:35
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- President Donald Trump will receive an intel briefing in the morning before hosting a ‘Rose Garden Club’ dinner at 19:00 ET 00:00 BST.
- The White House is vetting Josh Sterling as a potential nominee for CFTC chair.
- Trump delivered a combative 57-minute speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday, arguing Western nations are collapsing due to poor leadership, uncontrolled immigration, and green energy commitments.
- Trump gave away little regarding foreign policy but signalled a possible route out of his dispute with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio will continue UN engagements today with two meetings on Middle East security.
- The EU's chief trade negotiator will meet USTR Jamieson Greer this week to try to restart negotiations on metals tariffs.
- Trump cancelled a meeting with Democratic leaders, leaving no clear offramp to avert a government shutdown on October 1.
- Trump said Kyiv can regain all territory controlled by Russia, a major shift from the Trump administration’s long-held position that Ukraine must accept territorial concessions to facilitate a ceasefire agreement with Russia.
- Trump offered broad support for Argentinian President Javier Milei. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined US measures to stabilise the Argentinian economy.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader threw cold water on Tehran’s last-ditch attempts to avert the reimposition of UN sanctions this weekend.
- Poll of the Day: Trump is most negative on the issues Americans rate as the most important.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Decent Oct'25 10Y Call Buy
Aug-25 12:33
- +25,000 TYV5 113.5 calls, 15 vs. 112-00.5/0.19% (pre-open)
FED: Chair Candidate Hassett: Powell's "Pivot" Was "Data-Driven" And "Sound"
Aug-25 12:33
NEC director Kevin Hassett (known to be a candidate for the next Fed Chair) tells CNBC that Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech showed a Fed that is "late" to cut but that Powell's presentation was "sound" and "data driven". He also suggests that it could be another few months before President Trump makes his decision on the next Chair.
- "I think that the pivot was accurate. It was data driven. If you look at the trailing six month inflation rate, it's 1.9%; core is about half percent higher than that, and so inflation has gone way down. Meanwhile, the economy is looking strong, but not too strong, and so I think it's appropriate for the Fed to consider ... what federal funds futures markets are saying they're going to do, that's cutting rates, and so I think that the Fed's a little bit late to the game, but I thought that the presentation that Jay Powell made up at Jackson Hole was sound."
- Asked if it was "impossible" for Powell to get back in the President's "good books", Hassett says: "Yes I do."
- On the topic of the Fed chair search, Hassett says "there are a number of really excellent candidates being interviewed by [Tsy Sec Bessent] and the president. And I would expect that this would run out for another few months before the President decides."
US TSYS: Extending Lows With German Bund
Aug-25 12:17
- Tsys extended lows in the last few minutes (TYU5 -6.5 at 111-30), Bunds following similar decline and modest bounce (RXU5 128.85 low, 128.88 last -.56).
- Heavy Treasury volumes tied to the Sep/Dec roll with Dec taking lead this Friday. Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.
- Initial technical support at 111-13 (50-day EMA), a clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.
