US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Senate Tries Again On Shutdown Deal
Jan-30 13:35
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US TSYS: Post-Weekly Claims React
Dec-31 13:34
- Treasury futures extend lows after lower than expected weekly & continuing claims, the prior figure for continuing claims is reduced.
- Currently, TYH6 trades 112-16 (-4.5) vs. 112-15.5 low / 112-25.5 high.
- The trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.
- Curves mixed: 2s10s at 67.256 +.107, 5s30s -.484 at 112.367.
- Bloomberg US$ index lower: BBDXY +.26 at 1203.39
MNI: US 27 DEC INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 199K (215K 20 DEC)
Dec-31 13:30
- MNI: US 27 DEC INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 199K (215K 20 DEC)
- US 20 DEC CONTINUING CLAIMS 1866K (1913K 13 DEC)
US TSYS: Where's the Beef? Treasuries Bid on Added China Tariff, Early NYE Close
Dec-31 11:55
- Treasuries holding firmer on light holiday volumes (TYH6 under 115k) - futures near top end of narrow range since the Asia cross-over to London trade - when yields dipped in reaction to additional tariffs on beef by China overnight: the US will have to pay 55% additional tariffs on beef exports to China, above its specified quota (164k tons a year in 2026).
- TYH6 trading 112-24 (+3.5) overnight high vs. 112-18 low, 10Y yld at 4.1083% (-.0136), curves mildly flatter with the Bonds outperforming: 2s10s -.966 at 66.183, 5s30s -.580 at 112.170.
- Trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
- Markets close early today for New Years eve (1300ET; 1600ET Globex), re-open/electronic trade Thursday evening for Friday's order of business. Today's shortened session sees Weekly Jobless Claims (0830ET). Followed by staggered US Treasury supply: 4W & 8W bills at 1000ET, 17W bills at 1130ET.
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