US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Senate Tries Again On Shutdown Deal
Jan-30 13:35
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- President Donald Trump will sign executive orders in the morning and hold a policy meeting in the afternoon.
- Senate Democrats struck a deal with Trump that would limit the impact of a government shutdown tomorrow, agreeing to extract DHS from a six-bill minibus of FY2026 appropriations bills. If the Senate passes the compromise package today, it will be handed to the House, which will need to approve both the new five-bill appropriations bundle and a stopgap funding measure for DHS.
- Trump announced he is nominating former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to serve as Fed Chair.
- The Treasury Department issued no major changes in its semiannual report to Congress on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of trading partners.
- Senate Democrats appear poised to reject the GOP's “best and final” offer for reviving Obamacare subsidies.
- Trump levied another tariff threat against Canada for blocking certification of US-made Gulfstream jets.
- Senate Agriculture Republicans advanced a landmark cryptocurrency bill without Democratic support.
- Democrats will add another House representative to their conference tomorrow, bringing the House balance to 218-214.
- A second round of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine appears to have been postponed.
- Trump has reportedly been presented with an expanded list of potential military options against Iran.
- Trump said the US will open up all commercial air space over Venezuela.
- Poll of the Day: Republican support for Trump's plans and policies has softened.
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US TSYS: Post-Weekly Claims React
Dec-31 13:34
- Treasury futures extend lows after lower than expected weekly & continuing claims, the prior figure for continuing claims is reduced.
- Currently, TYH6 trades 112-16 (-4.5) vs. 112-15.5 low / 112-25.5 high.
- The trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.
- Curves mixed: 2s10s at 67.256 +.107, 5s30s -.484 at 112.367.
- Bloomberg US$ index lower: BBDXY +.26 at 1203.39
MNI: US 27 DEC INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 199K (215K 20 DEC)
Dec-31 13:30
- MNI: US 27 DEC INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 199K (215K 20 DEC)
- US 20 DEC CONTINUING CLAIMS 1866K (1913K 13 DEC)
US TSYS: Where's the Beef? Treasuries Bid on Added China Tariff, Early NYE Close
Dec-31 11:55
- Treasuries holding firmer on light holiday volumes (TYH6 under 115k) - futures near top end of narrow range since the Asia cross-over to London trade - when yields dipped in reaction to additional tariffs on beef by China overnight: the US will have to pay 55% additional tariffs on beef exports to China, above its specified quota (164k tons a year in 2026).
- TYH6 trading 112-24 (+3.5) overnight high vs. 112-18 low, 10Y yld at 4.1083% (-.0136), curves mildly flatter with the Bonds outperforming: 2s10s -.966 at 66.183, 5s30s -.580 at 112.170.
- Trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
- Markets close early today for New Years eve (1300ET; 1600ET Globex), re-open/electronic trade Thursday evening for Friday's order of business. Today's shortened session sees Weekly Jobless Claims (0830ET). Followed by staggered US Treasury supply: 4W & 8W bills at 1000ET, 17W bills at 1130ET.
