US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Pope's Funeral Offers Access To Trump

• Chancellor Reeves will begin delivering the Spring Statement in the House of Commons immediately after Prime Ministers’ Questions concludes – so slightly after 12:30GMT / 13:30CET / 8:30ET.
• Given the limited content, the FT is reporting that the speech will only be 25 minutes long.
• The gilt remit and full OBR forecasts are normally published when the statement is finished – so around 13:00GMT (possibly slightly before or a little later). Note that in previous years with longer speeches, this has been more like 13:30.
• We would then expect the DMO to announce the consultation agenda for its FQ1 issuance (the remainder of April through to June) at 15:30GMT. This will likely include a more granular breakdown of which auctions in FQ1 are for each maturity bucket, with guidance on which gilts will be issued (see page 4 of the MNI Spring Statement Preview).
• The DMO is to hold consultations with investors and GEMMs on 31 March.
• The rest of the FQ1 (remainder of April through to June) gilt operations calendar will be published at 7:30BST on Friday 4 April.

• In the FI space, Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Resistance remains intact and - for now - the latest move higher is considered corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. A recent impulsive sell-off reinforced a bear theme and signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a 2.618 projection of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing. Further out, 126.00 is also within range.
• The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. This week’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A break of this level is required to highlight a bullish condition. For now, attention is on support at 90.71, the Mar 6 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.

SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE

• 1M 4.46560 0.001
• 3M 4.37880 -0.0207
• 6M 4.31290 -0.031
• 12M 4.22620 -0.037