US: MNI POLITICAL RISK- Markets Interpret Tariff Delays Positively
Apr-14 12:27
Download Full Report Here
- President Donald Trump will host El Salvador President Nayib Bukele at the White House today for a bilateral meeting and lunch. Trump will sit down this week with the Spanish-language "Fox Noticias" program for his first post-‘Liberation Day’ interview.
- This week will again be dominated by Trump’s ambiguous trade policies. On Friday, Trump appeared to exempt some consumer electronics from all tariffs, including products from China, barring the 20% Fentanyl tariff. Yesterday, he indicated that reprieve could be short-lived.
- China has suspended exports of some rare earth minerals - crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries - in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told parliament today that Japan won’t rush into striking a compromise deal with the Trump administration.
- Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo is set to meet Treasury Secretary Bessent tomorrow amid signs Madrid is inclined to push for closer EU-China relations.
- President Trump signalled that he is likely to give Moscow more time to hammer out a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, despite an attack on Sumy that drew widespread international condemnation.
- US and Iranian delegations are expected to meet for a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday following a satisfactory first meeting in Oman on April 12.
- Poll of the Day: Americans are increasingly downbeat about the future of the US economy.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
