MNI POLITICAL RISK - House Takes Up Big Beautiful Bill

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Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump has no public events on his schedule, indicating he will spend the day on the phone with wavering House Republicans to coax the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ over the finish line.
• After a 26-hour vote-a-rama the Senate yesterday passed the OBBB in a 51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote.
• Early this morning, the House Rules Committee voted 7-6 to advance the package to the House floor for a final vote. Conservative hardliners on the panel - Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC) - voted with Democrats, signalling House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will face stiff opposition from his conservative flank.
• Johnson is likely to follow the playbook he has used in previous House votes, including leveraging Trump’s range of coercive tools. Our baseline scenario is that this strategy will succeed again, but opposition may be more entrenched this time. 
• Trump renewed threats to unilaterally impose tariff rates on trading partners, including suggesting a tariff rate upwards of 30% on Japan. Trump was more positive about a trade deal with India.
• The Pentagon has halted the delivery of Patriot air-defence missiles and other key munitions to Ukraine, raising concerns that Trump is winding down support for Kyiv.
• Trump said Israel has accepted the terms of a Gaza ceasefire.
• Iran says US airstrikes caused "serious and heavy damage" to its Fordow nuclear facility.
• Poll of the Day: Most investors foresee volatility persisting through 2025. 

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF