MNI POLITICAL RISK - House Delivers Trump A July 4 Victory Lap

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Executive summary:

• At 16:00 ET 21:00 BST, President Donald Trump will sign the One Big Beautiful Bill into law, capping a political winning streak for Trump. 
• The OBBB makes most of the tax measures in the 2017 TCJA permanent, introduces new campaign-trail tax pledges, lifts the debt limit for two years, and bolsters defence and border security. It finds offsets via steep cuts to safety net programmes and rolling back tax credits from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act.
• Republican tax writers used a previously untested accounting strategy to score the bill, potentially adding another layer of risk to the US fiscal outlook by setting a budget reconciliation precedent that could be followed by future administrations. The White House argues that tariff revenue and the bill’s growth potential will outstrip negative deficit impacts. 
• Trump said he would start sending letters to trading partners today, which could unilaterally impose tariff rates up to 70% - higher than any rate Trump unveiled on April 2.
• TSMC is delaying construction of a Japanese chip plant to divert more funds into US expansion.
• Optimism is increasing for a Gaza ceasefire ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington.
• A call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin yielded no progress toward a Ukraine ceasefire.
• Iran is open to nuclear negotiations with the US, but will not stop enriching uranium.
• Poll of the Day: Trump’s approval rating is holding steady ahead of OBBB polling data.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF