US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Congress Races To Avoid Repeat Shutdown In 2026
Nov-13 13:31
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- President Donald Trump will receive an intel briefing in the morning before signing an Executive Order.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with his counterparts from Brazil and Argentina.
- Trump signed a Continuing Resolution to end the historic 43-day shutdown. Congress now has 78 days to pass nine FY26 spending bills - or pass another short-term funding measure - to avoid a second shutdown on January 31, 2026.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration will announce a raft of agricultural tariff cuts in the coming days to address food prices. Bessent said a final decision hasn’t been made on Trump’s proposal for a USD$2000 tariff rebate.
- FBI Director Kash Patel touted a deal with China to crack down on Fentanyl precursor chemicals. Beijing agreed to expand military communication channels with Washington.
- President Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog demanding a full pardon for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
- House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-AK) is aiming to bring bipartisan energy permitting legislation to the floor this year.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will hold a vote on releasing Department of Justice files related to Jeffrey Epstein next week.
- G7 foreign ministers reaffirmed “unwavering support for Ukraine," acknowledged "leveraging immobilised Russian Sovereign Assets" and reiterated "strong support" for Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
- Chart of the Day: Trump’s boycott of this month’s G20 summit in South Africa risks undermining 15 years of work.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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EQUITIES: Option Expiry Friday
Oct-14 13:21
Equity Option Expiry in Notional Term for Friday:
US:
- SPX: $1.61T vs $1.53T (Yesterday).
- NDX: $68.28bn vs $61.97bn.
- Amazon: $18.55bn vs $15.78bn.
- Apple: $17.82bn vs $17.29bn.
EU/UK:
- SX5E: €118.67bn vs €117.58bn.
- SX7E: €10..54bn vs €10.55bn.
- DAX: €17.80bn vs €17.46bn.
- FTSE: £9.60bn vs £9.23bn.
US: White House Looks To Remove Government Shutdown Pressure Points
Oct-14 13:14
At around 17:30 ET 22:30 BST, the Senate will hold an eighth, almost certainly doomed, vote on the House-passed government funding bill. The House remains out of session with no sign of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) bringing lawmakers back.
- Key Dates: Oct. 14: Air traffic controllers miss first paycheck, Oct. 15: Troops miss first paycheck, Oct. 15: September CPI delayed, Oct. 24: Federal employees miss first full paycheck, Nov. 1: Possible lapse in WIC nutrition assistance, Nov. 1: Open enrolment for ACA, Nov. 2: Possible disruptions to SNAP, Nov. 5: Shutdown will become the longest ever
- The White House is taking steps to derrisk these pressure points, ordering the Pentagon to secure funds to pay troops and is “working on ways” to get paychecks to federal law-enforcement officers, per Punchbowl.
- Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration is looking to tap tariff revenue to ensure SNAP payments continue. An OMB official said, “OMB is making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence. Pay the troops, pay law enforcement, continue the RIFs, and wait.” Note: ‘RIF’ refers to OMB ‘Reduction in Forces’ notices, directing agencies to lay off workers.
- Offramp? Politico reports, “There are new signs Republicans are preparing for negotiations on the Obamacare subsidies. Some in the circle of House GOP leadership are having early, informal conversations with officials from the White House to develop a framework for a deal.”
Figure 1: How long will the government shutdown last?
Source: Kalshi
STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Oct-14 13:08
- STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.10% (+0.00), volume: $87B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.10% (+0.00), volume: $174B
- US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.15% (+0.02), volume: $2.895T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.12% (+0.02), volume: $1.138T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.12% (+0.02), volume: $1.110T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
