US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Biden Weighs Up Response To Jordan Attack
- President Biden is weighing up a response to an attack perpetuated by an Iran-backed militant group which killed three US personnel in Jordan. The decision could have profound consequences for a region which is teetering on the brink of a major regional war.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to bring a USD$70 billion tax bill to the floor this week.
- The Treasury Department announced yesterday it expects to borrow USD$760 billion in the first quarter, USD$55 billion lower than forecast in October.
- Speaker Johnson met yesterday with the 12 House Appropriations Committee ‘cardinals’ to discuss the FY24 spending bills which need to be drafted and passed before two government funding deadlines in early March.
- The House Homeland Security Committee will meet today to mark up articles of impeachment against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is in Washington this week to lobby Ukraine-sceptic Republican lawmakers.
- President Biden will head to Palm Beach, Florida today – deep in the territory of former President Donald Trump – to fundraise and advocate for down ballot Florida Democrats.
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) yesterday unveiled a list of House seats they are targeting in November.
- Senior US and Chinese officials met today in Beijing for a key meeting on counter-narcotics.
- The fifth US-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting gets underway today at the Department of State.
- The Biden administration could reinstate sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector in April.
- Poll of the Day: Economic confidence has improved to its highest level in two years.
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Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H4) Bullish Outlook
- RES 3: 96.160 - High Jul 20
- RES 2: 96.126 - 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 96.110 - High Dec 28
- PRICE: 96.035 @ 15:12 GMT Dec 29
- SUP 1: 95.390/275 - Low Nov 27 / 14
- SUP 2: 94.966 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 94.965 - Low Oct 31
Aussie 10yr futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded to new highs of 96.110 this week. This takes out key resistance at the 96.050 level, opening levels seen higher at the 2.0% upper Bollinger Band of 96.126. The recent recovery has tipped prices north of the 100-dma - reinforcing the current bullish theme. Key support lies below at 95.390 as well as 95.275. Weakness through here could mark the conclusion of the bounce off the bear trigger at 94.965.
USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3513 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.3391 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3371 High Dec 20 / 21
- RES 1: 1.3295 High Dec 25
- PRICE: 1.3200 @ 15:25 GMT Dec 29
- SUP 1: 1.3177 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
- SUP 3: 1.3044 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and price traded lower on Wednesday. The pair has recently cleared a bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. Furthermore, all key short-term retracement points have been breached. These developments reinforce a bearish theme and maintain the price sequence of lower lows. Sights are on 1.3093, the Jul 14 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 1.3391, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6961 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - Dec 4 - Dec 7 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6871 High Dec 28
- PRICE: 0.6821 @ 15:24 GMT Dec 29
- SUP 1: 0.6773 Low Dec 22
- SUP 2: 0.6714 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6605 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support
Bullish trend conditions in AUDUSD remain intact and this week’s continuation higher reinforces current conditions. The climb maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.6900, the Jun 16 high and the next key key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6714, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
