MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Portugal Election Preview

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Portugal holds a snap legislative election on 18 May following the successful parliamentary vote of no confidence against the minority government of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro in March. A fractured political landscape makes one party winning a majority in the Assembly of the Republic an unlikely scenario. As such, the formation of a coalition or minority government after the election is set to be required. There is significant focus on the post-election negotiations, given the prospect that the right-wing Chega is involved in supporting a minority administration for the first time. 

In this preview we include a brief background on why the snap election is taking place now, an explainer on the main political parties contesting the vote and how the electoral system works, analysis of post-election scenarios with assigned probabilities, an outlook for financial markets, and a chartpack of opinion polling and betting market data.