MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Australia Election Preview

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The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) is on course win a second term in office in the 3 May federal election. Just months ago, it appeared likely that the conservative Liberal/National coalition was set to return to power after just one term on the opposition benches. However, public sentiment appears to have shifted notably over the course of the campaign.

• Opinion polls point to a relatively close race on primary votes. However, Australia’s electoral system means Labor stand a strong chance of picking up seats based on second preference votes from Green and independent candidate supporters. 

In this election preview, we will provide a short briefing on how the election works and who the main parties are, a chartpack of opinion polling and betting market data ahead of the vote, a scenario analysis examining the probabilities and implications of various outcomes, and some sell-side views on the contest. 

Find full report PDF link below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK–AustraliaElectionPreview.pdf