EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Fed should be extra cautious about preventing inflation expectations from spiking from a combination of factors ranging from tariffs to the increased perception of lost U.S. central bank independence, says Tara Sinclair, a senior Treasury official between 2022 and 2024.
- Sinclair says that means being extra cautious about the prospect of cutting interest rates -- and not doing so until inflation returns more clearly to target or the job market unexpectedly weakens.
- Sinclair, co-author of a recent paper called Central Bank Reviews, worries the Fed's own will be too narrow.
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