OIL: MNI Oil Weekly: September Oil on the Water Surges
Oct-08 16:11
Executive Summary:
• September Oil on the Water Surges: Oil on the water levels surged in September to near record highs as a multitude of factors converged on the world’s top producers – pushing more barrels onto the water.
• Oil Markets: Crude front month has seen net gains so far this week after a smaller OPEC+ output rise for November than some prior reports had suggested. Crack spreads have regained some ground after falling into early October as concern for the impact of the partial Russia diesel ban eased.
• Analyst Views: See oil market views and outlooks by key market names.
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SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK: Mar'20 SOFR Calls
Sep-08 16:08
- 20,000 SFRH6 97.00 calls, 11.0 vs. 96.65/0.28% at 1158:51ET
FOREX: EURJPY Eyes Key Bull Trigger at 173.97
Sep-08 16:05
- Japanese developments have prompted a more notable 0.4% increase for EURJPY, which earlier in the session traded within 7 pips of key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle and place the cross at the highest level since July 2024, levels reached shortly before the BOJ’s multiple bouts of intervention.
- 174.86 would be the next chart level (a Fibonacci projection), before 175.43, last year’s high.
- Japan PM Ishiba's resignation triggered an immediate leadership race in the LDP, with Thatcherite MP Sanae Takaichi a front-runner among many opinion polls. She's made clear her preference for easy monetary policy and a bigger role for fiscal spending.
- Bank of Japan officials are watching for signs that a stock market correction, combined with fiscal expansion concerns, could accelerate longer-term yield moves and steepen the JGB curve, potentially prompting the Ministry of Finance to cut issuance in Q4, which would mean the BOJ could scale back its own purchases in order to maintain liquidity, MNI understands.
FOREX: EURUSD Hovers Below Post-NFP High as French Vote Beckons
Sep-08 15:59
- Weaker-than-expected US employment data continues to keep the risks tilted towards the weaker dollar narrative, emphasised by the USD index spending today’s US session consolidating close to six-week lows. Strength in G10 has been led by the likes of AUD and NZD, while political risks in France may have contained the EURUSD price action somewhat.
- EURUSD spot currently resides just below the 1.1750 mark, threatening a daily close above the prior resistance point of 1.1743, the Aug 22 high. A clear break of this hurdle would mark a short-term bullish development and signal scope for an extension towards 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger.
- French PM Francois Bayrou told the French National Assembly that lawmakers can vote 'according to their conscience' today in a no-confidence vote that is expected to result in Bayrou being ousted. Betting markets lean slightly towards snap legislative elections, despite Macron ruling the option out and the risk of further gains for the far-right National Rally. Defence Minister Sbastien Lecornu is favoured to replace Bayrou if elections are not called.
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