MNI Oil Weekly: OPEC Quotas Not Translating to Exports

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Executive Summary:

• OPEC Quotas Not Translating to Exports: Oil markets would be expected to be in a more bearish position given OPEC+ cut unwinds this year but production commitments are failing to translate to barrels on the water and other key bullish factors support.
• Oil Market: Crude holds gains this week but within a wider range with concerns for potential measures against Russia set against supply/demand fundamentals suggesting a surplus in 2026. Cracks spreads are extending recent strength after reports of further drone strikes on Russia refineries and supported by the seasonal decline in refinery runs.
• Analyst Views: see oil market views and outlooks by key industry names.