MNI Norges Bank Review: November 2025 - No MPR, No Signals

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.00% in November, fully in line with expectations. The policy statement indicated that “no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September”.
• As such, guidance was completely unchanged: “The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year. "
• The write-up of the Committee’s Assessment didn’t contain any major surprises, but some elements leant slightly hawkish on the margin, in our view. That likely contributed to a modest ~3bp rise in the 2-year NOK swap rate in the aftermath of the decision.
• However, the broader outlook for Norges Bank implied pricing is little changed. Markets still price about 50bps of easing though the next 12 months, one 25bp cut more dovish than implied by the September MPR rate path.
• There remain a range of analyst views around the magnitude and pace of easing in 2026. Some analysts see no more cuts as their base case, while others expect three more cuts to a terminal of 3.25%.