NORGES BANK: MNI Norges Bank Review: May '25 - March Guidance Intact

• RES 4: 5797.02 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 5610.64 20-day EMA      
• RES 2: 5435.00 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 5286.50 High Apr 7                             
• PRICE: 4244.25 @ 14:39 BST Apr 9   
• SUP 1: 4832.00 Low Apr 7                     
• SUP 2: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing 
• SUP 3: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
• 7SUP 4: 4519.84 61.8% retracement of the Oc ‘22 - Feb ‘25 bull cycle   

S&P E-Minis continues to trade in a volatile manner. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows, strengthen current conditions. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 4800.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 5610.64, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective

Yesterday’s low at 91.58 has contained downside in Gilt futures, which trade –44 ticks at 91.71 at typing. A continuation lower would expose the next key support located at 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally.

• The Gilt curve has steepened through the session, with 2-year yields anchored by this morning’s dovish ex-BOE official commentary in the Guardian (-1bp today at 3.99%), but 30-year yields up almost 8bps to 5.40%.
• That sees 10s30s steepen to 75.6bps (from ~70.5bps at yesterday’s close).
• Meaningful domestic headline flow has been relatively light, with Gilts displaying a familiar correlation with USTs once the Guardian piece was digested.
• A reminder that BOE’s Lombardelli speaks at 1700GMT today. She is considered close to the centre of the MPC, and hence any comments they make that deviate from the “gradual and careful” language would be deemed to be important. And of course any discussion of the impact of tariffs on the UK will be watched closely.

• RES 4: 115-00+ High Oct 1 ‘24 
• RES 3: 114-29+ 2.000 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing 
• RES 2: 114-16   2.000 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing   
• RES 1: 112-29/114-10 50.0% of Apr 7 high-low range / High Apr 7 
• PRICE:‌‌ 1111-12 @ 14:34 BST Apr 8 
• SUP 1: 111-10+/110-08 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 111-10+ 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 110-20+ 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 110-06   Low Mar 27    

The strong sell-off from yesterday’s high in Treasury futures is considered corrective - for now - and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in the break of resistance at 112-01, the Mar 4 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher opens 114-16 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support at 111-10+, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 110-20+, the 50 day EMA