MNI Norges Bank Preview - Aug '25: Slow and Steady

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• Norges Bank is unanimously expected to keep the policy rate on hold at 4.25% on Thursday, while continuing to guide towards further cuts in H2. 
• After surprising markets with a 25bp cut in June, macroeconomic data has broadly confirmed Norges Bank’s outlook. With the June MPR rate path consistent with “one or two” more cuts in H2 and implied probabilities tilted in favour of easing at the September and December MPR meetings, there appear few reasons to go against market consensus in August.
• We expect the primary guidance language from June to be maintained in the policy statement. With a rate hold fully priced and unanimously expected, a significant market reaction would require material deviations from the existing guidance language.
• Quarterly cuts in September and December remains the base case amongst analysts.