POLAND: MNI NBP Review - Sep 2025: A Dove In Fiscal Cage

August Questions for MNI Instant Answers. Outcome to be published Thursday midday.

1.    Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?

2.    Number of members voting for unchanged rate?

3.    Number of members voting for 25bp cut?

4.    Number of members voting for 50bp cut?

5.    Number of members voting for other rate decision? 
NB: On questions 2-5 we will name the dissenters (and the direction / magnitude of dissent)

6.    Did the MPC keep reference to a “gradual approach” in its guidance?

7.    Did the MPC keep reference to “careful” in its guidance?

8.    Did the MPC keep reference to “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” in its guidance?

9.    Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?

10.    Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the previous policy statement?

11.    UK CPI forecast in 2 years time at market rates (mode / mean)? 
Previous: 1.9% / 1.9% (Previous Q3-27 was 1.9% / 1.9%)

12.    UK CPI forecast in 3 years time at market rates (mode / mean)? 
Previous: 1.9% / 1.9%

13.    UK GDP modal forecasts at market rates (2025/2026/2027)?
Previous 1.0%/1.25%/1.5%
Note: Q13 to nearest 0.25ppt

14.    Was any guidance given for the September APF decision?

• ING now see the Fed cutting 25bp next month along with cuts in Oct and Dec before the Fed can “take stock of the situation” after which it cuts a further cumulative 50bp in early 2026.
• Their previous call was for a next cut being a 50bp cut in Dec before 75bp of cuts in 2026. Their terminal rate forecast is unchanged.
• The view change has been driven by Friday’s jobs report and subsequent weak business surveys.
• “We do have another jobs report and two more inflation releases before then, but we will need to see some firm numbers to delay a cut.”
• “That said, a new Fed Governor is set to be named to replace the imminently departing Adriana Kugler. That person may end up being President Trump’s nominee for Fed Chair once Jerome Powell’s term ends next May. With Powell also expected to step down from the Board of Governors at that point and needing to be replaced, the Fed is going to be leaning more dovishly from the second quarter of 2026 onwards. This suggests the possibility of deeper, faster interest rate cuts than we are currently forecasting in 2026.”

Carry-over SOFR & Treasury call option interest overnight, moderate volumes on a light data session. Underlying futures weaker, curves mildly steeper (2s10s +.996 at 49.364), pre-auction short sets ahead today's $42B 10Y auction. Projected rate cut pricing largely steady vs. late Tuesday (*) levels: Sep'25 at -22.6bp (-22.6bp), Oct'25 at -38.4bp (-38.4bp), Dec'25 at -58.3bp (-57.7bp), Jan'26 at -68.9bp (-68.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • Block, 5,000 SFRU5 95.87/95.93/96.00 call flys 1.5
  • -4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors, 2.5 ref 95.925
  • +4,000 SFRH6 98.00 calls, 2.5 ref 96.47
  • -10,000 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 2x1 put spds 1.5
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.18/96.25 call spds .62
  • +8,000 SFRZ5 96.56/96.68/96.75 1x3x2 broken call flys, 0.5
  • +20,000 SFRZ5 99.00 calls, 0.25 ref 96.245
  • +6,000 SFRU5 95.81/95.87/96.00/96.06 call condors, 3.75 ref 95.925
  • +4,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00 call spds ref 95.925
• Treasury Options:
  • -10,000 FVU5 109.25 calls, 13
  • +5,000 FVV5 108.25/108.75 2x1 put spds 6 vs. 109-01.75/0.17%
  • +1,500 FVU5 109/109.75 1x2 call spds 6 vs. 108-28.75/0.08%
  • 2,500 wk3 TY 112.75/113.25 call spds ref 112-02
  • 5,500 TYU5 110 puts, 2-3 ref 112-02.5
  • 27,000 Weekly Wednesday TY vs. wk2 TY 112 put spds, 7 net on the 3 day package where the first leg expires today. Or possibly a 3 day roll where open interest in the Wednesday option is 46,380 - in which case - more to trade soon.