POLAND: MPC's Kotecki Mulls October Rate Cut if Power Costs Capped: BBG

Bloomberg write that Trump’s advisers are encouraging him to nominate a temporary Fed governor to fill the vacant seat on the central bank’s board, according to people familiar with the discussions.

• "Naming a governor to serve out the term for the seat opening soon — set to expire in January 2026 — would give Trump additional time to interview candidates to serve as chair when Jerome Powell’s tenure leading the central bank ends in May of next year, the people said.
• The nominee will need to clear Senate confirmation, a vetting process that has traditionally taken months, but could be expedited if Trump pressures lawmakers to quickly fill the seat."
• The report may lower the odds of Warsh or Hassett being named this week as the replacement for Kugler - and lessens the pressure on the White House to make a final call on Powell's replacement. 

The confirmation of a 25% tariff to be imposed on India by the US for its purchases of Russian oil (see 'TARIFFS: Trump to Impose Additional 25% Tariff on India', 15:00BST) will be applied on top of the 25% 'reciprocal' levy due to come into force on 7 August according to the White House. The statement confirms that the tariff announced today "shall be in addition to any other duties, fees, taxes, exactions, and charges applicable to such imports." 

• As is often the case with US President Donald Trump's tariffs, there is a window of opportunity for further talks or a climb-down, with the additional 25% tariff due to come into force 21 days from now (Wednesday 27 August). 
• The measure marks the first time that the US has imposed 'secondary' sanctions/tariffs on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine (i.e. penalising not the country directly, but those nations trading with it in an effort to build pressure for the target country to change policy).
• As noted earlier, relations between China and India have shown signs of recent improvement (see 'INDIA: Modi To Visit China For First Time In 7 Years For SCO Summit, 14:58BST). These US secondary tariffs could result in an about-turn by India, given the increasing reliance on US trade (up from USD43.2bln in 2013 to USD91.2bln in 2024 according to COMTRADE data). Alternatively, they could further spur Delhi to look towards Beijing and Moscow for economic cooperation and investment if the US is viewed as an unreliable or belligerent partner. 

• US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -3.03M TO 423.7M AUG 01 WK
• US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS -0.56M TO 113.0M IN AUG 01 WK
• US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -1.32M TO 227.1M IN AUG 01 WK
• US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS +0.45M TO 23.0M BARRELS IN AUG 01 WK
• US EIA: SPR +0.24M TO 403.0M BARRELS IN AUG 01 WK
• US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +1.5% TO 96.9% IN AUG 01 WK