MNI NBP Review - Oct 2025: Door Open To Further Cuts

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Executive Summary:

• The NBP trimmed interest rates by 25bp at the third successive meeting.
• Glapiński guided that the NBP could bring the key rate to 4% and consider next steps.
• The Governor left the door open to a Nov cut; played down potential for a Dec move.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) lowered the reference rate by 25bp to 4.50%, in line with our out-of-consensus bias, citing an improving inflation outlook for the coming period. The move in rates was again branded as an ‘adjustment’ rather than part of a ‘cycle’ even though it was the third consecutive meeting where the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) relaxed monetary policy. Governor Adam Glapiński used press conference to signal readiness to cut interest rates further if favourable macroeconomic trends are maintained. On the other hand, he signalled that lingering inflationary risks will result in a cautious, conservative approach to monetary easing. In the Governor’s view, the MPC could bring the reference rate to 4% and then debate whether to cut it any further.