MNI NBP Review - June 2025: Reduced Odds of July Cut

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Executive summary:

• The NBP left interest rates unchanged, as expected.
• Forward guidance was reset to data dependence, tone turned more cautious.
• Fiscal policy and household energy prices were flagged as key risks.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates unchanged in a well-telegraphed decision. The statement accompanying the policy announcement was rather laconic and most changes were related to the traditional acknowledgement of recent macroeconomic data, without any further discussion of the implications for the interest-rate outlook. In a similar vein, Governor Adam Glapiński kept his press conference unusually short. While he refused to offer any explicit forward guidance, the tone of his comments on the macroeconomic backdrop was evidently more cautious, with regulated household energy prices and loose fiscal policy flagged as key risks for the period ahead.