POLAND: MNI NBP Review - July 2025: Inflation Forecast Triggers Cut

• Size: E12bln (MNI expected E7-10bln)
• Books closed in excess of E120bln (incl. E5.3bln JLM interest)
• Spread set earlier at 2.95% Jul-30 +8bps (guidance was +10bps area)
• Maturity: 1 October 2030
• Coupon: Short first
• ISIN: IT0005654642

• Size: E5bln WNG
• Guidance: 0.95% Mar-37 +6bps (guidance was +9bps area)
• Books closed in excess of E94bln (incl. E3.8bln JLM interest)
• ISIN: IT0005596470

• Settlement: 11 June 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: Barclays (DM/B&D) / BNPP / BofA / CACIB / Santander / Societe Generale
• Timing: Allocations and pricing to follow

• RES 4: 112-04+ High May 2 
• RES 3: 111-25   High May 7  
• RES 2: 111-05+ High May 9  
• RES 1: 110-30   High May 30 and high Jun 2
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-14 @ 11:20 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 109-26/12+ Low May 29 / 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 109-00   Round number support 
• SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing

Treasury futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. A dominant bear cycle remains in play for now, and recent gains still appear corrective. However, the contract has breached an important resistance at 110-23, the May 16 high. A clear breach of this level would undermine a bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal, exposing 111-05+, May 9 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-12+, May 22 low.

OI data points to a mix of net short setting and long cover through the SOFR blues on Tuesday.

• The unchanged price status across the front 3 contracts means that we can’t make any definitive inference re: the direction of the apparent positioning adds and cover in those contracts.