MNI NBP Review - Dec 2025: Entering 'Wait-And-See' Mode

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Executive Summary:

• The MPC brought the amount of easing this year to 175bp, taking the key rate to 4%.
• The panel will likely move into wait-and-see mode before considering more cuts.
• The Governor thought 4% rate was ‘perfect’ but other members may prefer a lower level.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) delivered the widely anticipated 25bp ‘adjustment’, bringing the cumulative amount of easing this year to 175bp and taking the reference rate to 4%. The Governor struck celebratory notes after concluding that the central bank has managed to anchor inflation at the +2.5% Y/Y target but signalled that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) may slow the pace of easing. In his personal view, the current level of the reference rate is ‘perfect’ and could be left unchanged for longer, but other members may push for a further reduction. Over the near term, the Council will move into a ‘wait-and-see’ mode to observe the impact of past monetary policy action, before reconsidering further steps. We expect the NBP to recommence cuts in March after seasonal and temporary uncertainty factors dissipate and the Council receives a fresh macroeconomic projection.