MNI NBP Review - April 2025: A Dove In Charge Of Doves

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Executive Summary:

• The Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged.
• Governor Glapiński’s took a sharp dovish turn in rhetoric.
• The Governor guided that rate cuts could begin in May.

The press conference after the MPC’s widely anticipated decision to leave interest rates on hold could have hardly been more dovish. In some sense, the dovish pivot had already been in the making. The NBP’s rhetoric had become blatantly incongruent with the increasingly dovish macroeconomic picture, with data flow posing continuous challenge to official projections and to the message delivered at successive press conferences. Most analysts anticipated the eventual convergence of NBP comms with dovish data – but most expected a much more gradual pivot, spread over successive meetings leading to the release of the next macroeconomic projection in July. According to Governor Adam Glapiński’s fresh forward guidance, the initial rate cut could be delivered as soon as in May and a double-barrel 50bp move is firmly on the table.