MNI NBP Preview - Sep 2025: On-Target CPI Raises Odds Of Cut

MNI NBP Preview - September 2025.pdf

Executive Summary:

• Consensus is leaning towards 25bp cut this week but we see risks to this call.
• A goldilocks scenario and on-target inflation support further monetary easing.
• Loose fiscal policy and energy price uncertainty remain sources of concern.

Returning from a summer recess, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to deliver another 25bp interest-rate adjustment, bringing the reference rate to 4.75% this week. Headline CPI inflation has now been within the +/-1pp tolerance band around the NBP’s +2.5% Y/Y target for two consecutive months and is expected to stay there over the medium term, while core price pressures have continued to subside. A continued cooling of the labour market should help assuage the concerns of Polish central bankers, with nominal wage growth easing to multi-year lows. However, loose fiscal policy and uncertainty around energy prices will be a restraint on appetites for more aggressive monetary easing.