MNI NBP Preview - Nov 2025: Cut On Cards After Soft CPI Print

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Executive Summary:

• It is a close call between a 25bp cut and a hold from the cautious MPC.
• A soft flash October CPI print boosted the odds of a rate reduction.
• The decision will be supported by a fresh triannual inflation projection.

The November meeting may be the last chance for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut interest rates this year as an unwritten local convention dictates that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) sits on its hands in December. Although recent communications signalled continued vigilance amid lingering inflationary risks, another dovish CPI reading prompted a realignment of market consensus around a 25bp rate reduction. We too are inclined to think that the MPC will deliver an opportunistic cut before taking the next couple of months to reconsider its stance. Benign current inflation data and a revised macroeconomic projection should provide sufficient grounds to continue easing monetary policy. At the same time, we admit that it is a close call, with this MPC’s opaque reaction function fuelling uncertainty around the outcome.