MNI NBP Preview - Mar 2025: New Projection

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Executive Summary:

• The NBP is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
• The details and rhetoric around the new macro projection will be of interest.
• The Governor is likely to emphasise near-term inflation uncertainties again.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and analyst consensus expectations are that monetary easing will commence no earlier than in 2H2025. With NBP communications supporting a continued pause in interest-rate action, the highlight of this meeting will be the publication of the latest macroeconomic forecast, as well as the spin put on the new projections by the Governor and the rate-setting panel. We expect the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) to keep focusing on near-term uncertainties around the inflation outlook, while an explicit admission to already having conversations about future cuts on the back of the new projections could provide a modest dovish surprise.