MNI NBP Preview - Jan 2026: Pause, Wait & See?

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Executive Summary:

• Consensus is leaning overwhelmingly toward a hold over another 25bp cut.
• The Governor guided that the NBP would enter 'wait-and-see' mode at the start of '26.
• But a benign flash December CPI print boosted perceived odds of an early cut.

Another softer-than-expected inflation print arguably increased the probability of a surprise rate cut but we side with consensus in calling for a pause to the NBP’s undeclared easing cycle. In unusually strong forward guidance after the December meeting, Governor Adam Glapiński signalled the Monetary Policy Council’s (MPC’s) strong preference for entering ‘wait-and-see’ mode at the beginning of the year after it delivered a total of 175bp worth of rate cuts last year. Whilst the panel’s reaction function appears to be heavily skewed towards current data, we do not think that a marginal inflation target undershoot is sufficient to tip the balance, even as the risks are tilted towards a surprise cut. The Council will likely opt to hold fire for now amid seasonally heightened uncertainty around price dynamics in Poland.