MNI NBH Preview - September 2025: Another Cautious Hold

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Executive summary:

• The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep the base rate on hold at 6.50% again this month, sticking to its ‘cautious and patient’ approach to monetary policy.
• Officials are likely to strike a hawkish tone and reiterate their commitment to achieving and maintaining price stability given that headline inflation is expected to remain above the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range in the coming months.
• Among sell-side, analysts expect the base rate to remain at current levels for the remainder of the year.

At this month’s meeting, the NBH will have an updated set of macroeconomic projections to inform its decision. However, no significant revisions are expected to either the CPI or GDP projections for this year, with both expected to edge lower from their annual averages of +4.7% and +0.8%, respectively.

Comments from Governor Mihaly Varga since the previous meeting have remained hawkish. The Governor has repeatedly stated that a“stability-oriented” monetary policy is needed to reach price stability, and that strengthening trust and recovery in the European economy were crucial to accelerate growth. His most notable comments have been on the forint – Varga said the forint’s gains reflect Hungary’s economic stability, which has begun to feed into the price of purchased goods. Given the importance of HUF stability in leaning against elevated inflation pressures, it is unsurprising that official communication has been so cautious.