MNI: Growth In China Copper Demand Set To Increase In 2026

China’s copper demand growth is expected to increase next year as Beijing doubles down on intensive activities such as urban renewal and AI and new energy infrastructure, local analysts told MNI, adding that recent record-high prices are set to remain elevated and volatile in the near term. 

Growth in China’s refined copper consumption in semi-finished products—which includes rods, wires, tubes and plates—is expected to accelerate in 2026 to around 4.0% year on year, up approximately 1.3 percentage points from the 2025 forecast, said Paula Xu, Head of Nonferrous Metals at Shanghai-based commodity research firm Mysteel.

Demand from power grid upgrades should grow substantially as the ongoing expansion of wind and solar capacity drives an increases in investment in the copper-heavy infrastructure buildout, Xu added.

China’s installed wind and solar PV capacity is expected to hit 3TW by 2030, a scale that will exceed the combined energy capacity – of all types – in the U.S., EU and India, a policy advisor recently told MNI. (See MNI INTERVIEW: China AI Demand To Drive Electricity)

Artificial intelligence and data centre construction are also emerging as important new demand engines, supporting further power grid investment and copper appetite through expanded circuit connections and power transmission, Xu added.

Policies promoting the trade-in of high copper-content products such as home appliances, automobiles and machinery over the past two years are expected to continue to be implemented, but the growth rate will gradually slow, said Gu Fengda, director of non-ferrous metals at Guoxin Futures, who expects China’s refined copper consumption in 2026 to grow by approximately 2% to 4% year-on-year.

PRICES

Copper prices could continue upwards after reaching recent historic highs of above CNY92,000 per tonne on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as Beijing’s latest policy documents reinforce bullish expectations for the metal, adding to global tailwinds from Federal Reserve rate cuts, intensifying geo-commercial tensions and persistently weak supply growth, Gu said.

However, any further rally would encounter technical resistance near CNY95,000 per tonne and even if prices break through that level, would face an upper cap at around CNY98,000, said Gu.

In the near term, copper markets should remain elevated and volatile as bouts of profit-taking, alongside the potential for a flare-up in China-U.S. trade relations and potential problems in the pace of mine restarts globally, Gu noted.

Structural resource scarcity and the global energy transition continue to underpin prices, while in 2026 global mine supply growth is unlikely to keep pace with demand expectations, reinforcing tight fundamentals, Gu said.

As year-end approaches, China’s downstream and end-user firms are facing tighter cash flows and remain cautious about restocking, which is likely to constrain any large upside pressure on prices from current levels, Xu added.