MNI Global Week Ahead - US Tariff Announcement and NFPs Eyed
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
MONDAY / TUESDAY - Eurozone March Flash Inflation
The Eurozone March flash inflation round continues on Monday with readings from Germany (1300GMT, state-level CPI data at 0900GMT) and Italy (1000GMT). Consensus expects German HICP inflation to ease to 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior) and the Italian reading to tick up to 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.7% prior). In Germany, base effects related to the timing of Easter are expected to pull down on several services components, while energy is also expected to drag on the headline rate. Following softer-than-expected French and Spanish readings on Friday, there may already be downside risks to the Eurozone-wide 2.2% Y/Y headline and 2.5% Y/Y core consensus (EZ data is due on Tuesday at 1000GMT). A realisation of such downside risks would tilt the market-implied probability of a 25bp ECB cut on April 17 further in favour of a 25bp cut.
MONDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
Monday’s monetary policy decision looks like being a very close call, with recent political and fiscal uncertainties appearing to have shifted expectations towards a continued pause in the easing cycle. Latest inflation and activity data also support the case for the central bank to maintain its cautious stance and stay on hold at 9.50%. The vote is likely to be split, however, with new Board members expected to argue for renewed rate cuts, amid political pressures to support the economy, keeping the door open to the possibility of a cautious 25bp cut.
TUESDAY - Japan Tankan Survey
There will be a number of focus points in Q1 Tankan report. General business conditions, along with the capex outlook will be market and BoJ watch points. The market consensus for the capex print is 3.3%, down from Q4's 11.3% outcome. Some slowing in capex may not derail BoJ hike plans though, as wage gains remain strong and this is expected to drive firmer consumer spending trends this year.
TUESDAY - RBA Decision
The next RBA decision is on April 1 and it is likely to keep rates at 4.1% after cutting them 25bp on February 18. Governor Bullock warned following the last meeting that one rate cut did not mean another would automatically follow and that market pricing was too optimistic given that it did not return underlying inflation to the 2.5% target band mid-point at all over the forecast horizon. Inflation news since February has been broadly consistent with underlying inflation returning sustainably to the band though but there were tentative signs that labour costs are becoming sticky.
TUESDAY / THURSDAY - US ISM Surveys
March's ISM surveys will provide important updates on sentiment and activity amid increasing uncertainty over the economic outlook and government policy shifts. ISM Manufacturing (Tuesday) is expected to slip back below 50 for the first time since December (50.3 Jan), with multiple other indicators including the flash PMI suggesting an early-2025 rebound in activity may have been tariff front-running related and therefore temporary. The degree to which this is offset by solidity in ISM Services (Thursday), which is seen slowing only slightly to 53.1 (53.5 Jan) to still post a 9th consecutive month above 50, is key to the overall outlook. For both, the prices paid subcomponent will bear particular attention after hitting multi-month highs in February on tariff concerns.
WEDNESDAY - Trump's 'Liberation Day' / Announcement of Reciprocal Tariffs
At his January 20 inauguration, US President Trump ordered officials to produce an "America First" trade policy report, which is set to provide an economic rationale for a sweeping set of US reciprocal tariffs against major trading partners. The President has already imposed tariffs on Chinese, Canadian and Mexican products ahead of this date, alongside 25% levies on steel and aluminium imports. At the very least, tariffs on further Canadian and Mexican goods are set to go into effect next week, alongside a broad-based 25% tariff on autos (with auto part tariffs, and potentially pharmaceuticals, set to follow in May). There remains considerable uncertainty around how broad and stringent further levies will be, with trading partners such as the EU still hoping to provide the US with concessions to avoid a further ratcheting higher of trade restrictions. For markets, there may be some relief to simply get April 2 into the rear view. However, it is highly likely that US trade policy uncertainty will remain prevalent for the foreseeable future, and that any announcements made may not necessarily set in stone, nor be the end of further trade threats and uncertainty for global trade.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
The NBP is set to continue to keep rates on hold, even as a recent streak of more-benign-than-expected data and optimistic signals on the energy price outlook have put the Governor's hawkish narrative to a test. Consensus sees the central bank's July Inflation Report as the earliest possible catalyst of interest-rate action.
FRIDAY - US Labour Market Report / Fed Chair Powell
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for March headlines the US economic calendar, with expectations that Trump administration policies are starting to more earnestly weigh on jobs growth. Bloomberg consensus currently sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 135k in March after the 151k in February, despite a boost from almost 15k returning strikers. Jobless claims data still show relatively little sign of federal government layoffs having a macro impact on the jobs data although continuing claims in those states likely most affected suggest that rehiring is starting to become a little harder which is unsurprising for sectors that are used to low labor market churn. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1% but can easily surprise higher again having increased to 4.14% in February after 4.01% in January. The median FOMC participant has already marked its 4Q25 u/e rate forecast higher to 4.4% in the March SEP (from 4.3%) though, which might curtail market reaction to a small surprise higher, although it doesn’t see any further deterioration with 4.3% in both 2026 and 2027. We'll also watch the underemployment rate after its jump to 8.0% for its highest since Oct 2021 and what was particularly low average weekly hours worked.
Note that Fed Chair Powell once again provides post-payrolls remarks this month, speaking on the economic outlook at a SABEW conference with prepared remarks and Q&A. These will be watched particularly closely for clues over the Fed’s assessment of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement due earlier in the week.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 31/03/2025 | - |  AU | Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting | |
| 31/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | * |  JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 31/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 31/03/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/03/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/03/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 31/03/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 31/03/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 31/03/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 31/03/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 31/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 31/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 31/03/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** |  IT | HICP (p) |
| 31/03/2025 | - | GB | DMO Quarterly Investors/GEMM consultation | |
| 31/03/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
| 31/03/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** |  US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 31/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 31/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 31/03/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
| 31/03/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - NASS |
| 01/04/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 01/04/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | JP | Tankan |
| 01/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 01/04/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2025 | 0330/1430 | *** | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 01/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | ** |  CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/04/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0815/0915 | GB | BoE's Greene on ‘UK MP/macro conjuncture’ | |
| 01/04/2025 | 0820/1020 | EU | ECB's Cipollone At Croatian National Bank Meeting | |
| 01/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 01/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 01/04/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/04/2025 | 1230/1430 | EU | ECB's Lagarde At AI Conference | |
| 01/04/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 01/04/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 01/04/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 01/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 01/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 01/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 01/04/2025 | 1630/1830 | EU | ECB's Lane At AI Conference | |
| 02/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/04/2025 | 1030/1230 | EU | ECB's Schnabel At SciencesPo Conference | |
| 02/04/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 02/04/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 02/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/04/2025 | 1405/1605 | EU | ECB's Lane At AI Conference | |
| 02/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 02/04/2025 | 2030/1630 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 03/04/2025 | 2200/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Job Vacancies | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0700/0300 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0720/0920 | EU | ECB's De Guindos On "Financial Stability In Uncertain Times" | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
| 03/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 03/04/2025 | 1000/1200 | EU | ECB's Schnabel At OECD Seminar | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 03/04/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 03/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 03/04/2025 | 1630/1230 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1830/1430 | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 04/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 04/04/2025 | 0545/0745 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 04/04/2025 | 0600/0800 |  SE | Flash CPI | |
| 04/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04/04/2025 | 0630/0730 | GB | DMO announce Apr-Jun issuance operations | |
| 04/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
| 04/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04/04/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 04/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB's De Guindos Gives Lecture In Barcelona | |
| 04/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 04/04/2025 | 1525/1125 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1600/1200 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1645/1245 | US | Fed Governor Chris Waller | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/04/2025 | 0915/1115 | EU | ECB's Schnabel At Economy and Finance Workshop |
