MNI Global Week Ahead: US Refunding and Several CBs
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding
The U.S. Treasury’s first Refunding process of the 2026 fiscal year (Financing Requirements released Monday at 1500ET, Refunding announcement Wednesday at 0830ET) is likely to largely keep a steady approach to issuance policy, including leaving nominal Treasury coupon auction sizes unchanged for the 7th consecutive quarter. We also do not expect Treasury’s guidance on coupon issuance to change in this Refunding round ("Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.") Indeed, prospects for the next increase in coupon sizes continue to be pushed back rather than pulled forward. Nominal Treasury auction sizes haven’t been upsized since the May-Jul 2024 quarter, and current expectations are for no change until after the current fiscal year (so, Nov 2026 or later). Despite large fiscal deficits (just under 6% of GDP in the just-ended FY2025), a ramp-up of bill issuance has instead borne the burden of meeting volatile financing requirements. That strategy will only be reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s decision to conclude balance sheet runoff as of December 1, with the proceeds of all maturing Treasuries to be reinvested, and the proceeds of maturing MBS set to be reinvested into Treasury bills.
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US October ISM Surveys
Next week sees another week of US government shutdown restricted data releases. That means no BLS nonfarm payrolls report for October (a second month now without one) but labor data will nevertheless see plenty of attention from alternative sources. That includes ADP private payrolls and Revelio Labs’ labor statistics along with the final version of the Chicago Fed's unemployment rate nowcast after its advance release penciled in 4.35% for little change from its 4.34% estimate for September after 4.32% in the actual BLS data for August. We will also continue to receive another set of state-level weekly jobless claims which can be used to reasonably accurately gauge a nationwide estimate. Latest claims data pointed to a five-week low for initial claims, coming a day after Fed Chair Powell drew “some comfort” from claims and vacancies data suggesting “maybe continued gradual cooling, but nothing more than that”. Elsewhere, October business surveys will be in focus, especially the ISM manufacturing and services releases. Flash PMIs from S&P Global suggested that US business activity growth accelerated in October to the second-fastest so far this year, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025 to date. The PMIs have however been notably more optimistic than the ISM surveys for a few months now.
TUESDAY - RBA Decision
Attention will be firmly on Tuesday’s RBA decision and accompanying press conference and updated staff projections. After trimmed mean inflation rose back to the top of the 2-3% band in Q3, rates are now likely to be left at 3.6%. The AUD OIS market has virtually no chance of a cut priced in. The Board is likely to remain highly data dependent and cautious given inflation’s renewed shift higher and the emerging domestic recovery. There is likely to be at least a near-term upward revision to the RBA's inflation forecasts but the higher market cash rate, which is used in the projections, is likely to help core return to the 2.5% band mid-point.
WEDNESDAY - New Zealand Q3 Labour Market Data
Q3 labour market and wages data are released on Wednesday. Filled jobs for the quarter signal a stabilization but employment is likely to have remained soft. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly. The RBNZ forecast it to rise 0.1pp to 5.3% in its August projections. Soft labour demand is likely to weigh on private wage growth which is likely to rise by less than in Q2.
WEDNESDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank is almost certain to remain on hold at 1.75% on Wednesday, while reiterating that the policy rate “is expected to remain at this level for some time to come”. Since September, there have been several datapoints suggesting an economic recovery is underway, supported by accommodative monetary policy, an anticipated expansion of fiscal policy and declining trade policy uncertainty. However, we don't think these developments are enough to shift the Board from its clearly signalled path, particularly at an interim meeting with no updated MPR and rate path projection (only a concise Monetary Policy Update document will be presented). Soft signals from the Riksbank's Business Survey and a lack of improvement in hard labour market data should guard against the Board sending too hawkish a signal in November. There's a chance of the Riksbank tweaking its secondary rates in November, following a speech from Governing Thedéen on Swedish money markets and bank funding/liquidity in September. However, we think December is the more likely stage for these changes.
THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision
Norges Bank is unanimously expected to hold the deposit rate at 4.00% on Thursday. The November decision will not be accompanied by an updated MPR or rate path projection, only a concise Monetary Policy Assessment. Norges Bank rarely makes meaningful policy rate or guidance pivots at these interim meetings, so the base case is for a short policy statement with no new signals. The September decision was best described as being a "hawkish cut", with the updated rate path being consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years, implying a slow burn to a terminal rate of around ~3.25%. That said, domestic developments since September have been dovish on net, with CPI-ATE inflation printing below the September MPR projections, and registered unemployment ticking up unexpectedly. While these developments may get some airtime in November, they are more relevant for the December decision. We think risks over the next 12 months are tilted in favour of more easing than implied by the September MPR rate path.
THURSDAY - Bank of England Decision
Thursday's MPC decision is far from certain - indeed we would categorise our own view of the outcome as 50/50 between a 25bp cut and a hold. If it wasn't for the upcoming Budget we would have more certainty that a cut would be delivered given the downside surprises to inflation (particularly as this was driven by food) and the downside surprise to wage growth. In spite of this, we think all of the four hawkish dissenters from the August decision will be voting to maintain Bank Rate on hold. This means that we will need the remaining 5 MPC members to all vote for a cut. We have confidence that Taylor and Dhingra will continue to vote for a cut but for us the decision comes down to Governor Bailey. We think if he votes for a cut that Ramsden and Breeden will join him. If he does not, we would not be surprised by a 5-4, 6-3 or 7-2 vote for Bank Rate on hold. There may be a messy market reaction around the decision given the change in communication style at this meeting. The Monetary Policy Summary will be shortened and the Minutes will be enhanced by adding sections on each individual member's view. There will also be a new Monetary Policy Overview document and more boxes and scenarios in the MPR. As usual for a quarterly MPR meeting, there will be a press conference following the decision.
FRIDAY - Canada October Labour Market Report
X
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
Consensus is split between a 25bp cut and a hold after October inflation undershot NBP and market forecasts in flash reading. Recent communications signalled reluctance to rush into further cuts, but a benign CPI reading may encourage some members to reconsider. The upcoming rate decision will also be informed by a new triannual macroeconomic projection, which may shed some light on the medium-term outlook. The November meeting may be the last opportunity to cut rates this year, as the December one traditionally yields an on-hold decision.
WEDNESDAY - Copom Decision (Brazil)
The Copom is widely expected to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, as the committee maintains its hawkish stance to rein in unanchored inflation expectations. Though inflation and inflation expectations have been gradually declining, they remain above target and officials have continued to reiterate their high for longer messaging recently. Nonetheless, with activity showing some signs of softening as well, focus will be on the forward guidance and whether there are any signals for a possible rate cut in the near future. For now, many analysts see the easing cycle beginning in the first quarter of next year, although some still see risks of a move in December.
THURSDAY - BNM Decision (Malaysia)
Next week on the 6th of November, the Bank Negara Malaysia holds its monetary policy committee meeting to decide on interest rates, with little expectation of a cut from markets. Advanced third quarter GDP estimates topped expectations and beating 2Q at 5.2% as the South East Asian nation's economy continues to power ahead. CPI remains at the bottom end of the BNM target range yet the September result inched up moderately, thereby reducing the deflationary concerns of some. Industrial production jumped in August and the September exports was one of the strongest results this year, rising +12.2%. In the mid part of the year, the 3-Yr government bond yield had converged on the BNM policy rate, but since the cut in July, has moved in opposite directions. In recent weeks, the 3-Yr MGS has edged higher in yields, widening the gap to the base rate, suggesting that bond markets have little expectations for rate cuts. We see the BNM on hold next week, with a neutral forward looking stance suggesting that rates could be on hold for some time.
THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)
The Czech National Bank is set to leave the repo rate on hold as sticky services inflation justifies keeping monetary policy settings slightly restrictive. The focus will turn to the new macroeconomic projection and forward guidance, but Governor Michl may maintain strategic ambiguity on the next move in rates.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
Banxico is expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut on Thursday, bringing the overnight target rate down to 7.25%. Although core inflation remains stuck above the ceiling of the 2-4% target range, the majority of the Board continues to place more emphasis on the weakness of economic activity, highlighted by a contraction of the economy in Q3. Nonetheless, the vote is likely to be split once again, with Deputy Governor Heath continuing to focus on the stalling of the core disinflation process. Focus will therefore remain on the forward guidance, which is likely to keep the door open to further easing ahead given the backdrop of Fed rate cuts and a resilient Mexican peso.
Calendar
Note: US Government shutdown ongoing, meaning any Government-compiled US statistics will not be released.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 03/11/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | - |  GB | Bank of England Meeting | |
| 03/11/2025 | - | AU | Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting | |
| 03/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 03/11/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** |  CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/11/2025 | 0700/0200 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/11/2025 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 03/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03/11/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB Lane Lecture In Dublin | |
| 03/11/2025 | - | *** |  US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 03/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 03/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 03/11/2025 | 1700/1200 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 03/11/2025 | 1830/1330 |  CA | BOC Governor fireside chat at The Logic conference | |
| 03/11/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 04/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 04/11/2025 | 0330/1430 | *** | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 04/11/2025 | 0740/0840 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech At Bulgarian National Bank | |
| 04/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | FR | Budget Balance | |
| 04/11/2025 | 0945/1045 | EU | ECB Lagarde At Bulgarian National Bank Press Conference | |
| 04/11/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/11/2025 | 1135/0635 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 04/11/2025 | 1140/1140 | GB | BOE Breeden at International Banking Conference | |
| 04/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 04/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/11/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 04/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 04/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 04/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/11/2025 | 2100/1600 | CA | Canada federal budget, release expected just after 4pm EST | |
| 05/11/2025 | 2200/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | - |  SE | Riksbank Meeting | |
| 05/11/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 05/11/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ PPI |
| 05/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 05/11/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 05/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 05/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 05/11/2025 | 1610/1610 | GB | BOE Breeden At SALT Blockchain Event | |
| 06/11/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | average wages (p) |
| 06/11/2025 | - |  NO | NorgesBank Meeting | |
| 06/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 06/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
| 06/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 06/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 06/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
| 06/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 06/11/2025 | 0810/0910 | EU | ECB Schnabel At ECB Money Market Conference | |
| 06/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB De Guindos On Natixis Webinar | |
| 06/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 06/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 06/11/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 06/11/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 06/11/2025 | 1230/1230 | GB | BOE Press Conference | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 06/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
| 06/11/2025 | 1400/1400 | GB | Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 06/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 06/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 06/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | CA | BOC Governor Macklem testifies at Senate. | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | US | NY Fed's John Williams | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1700/1200 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1830/1930 | EU | ECB Lane At IMF Conference | |
| 06/11/2025 | 1900/1400 | *** |  MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
| 06/11/2025 | 2030/1530 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 06/11/2025 | 2130/1630 | US | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | |
| 06/11/2025 | 2230/1730 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 07/11/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 07/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Trade Balance |
| 07/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/11/2025 | 0800/0300 | US | NY Fed's John Williams | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1110/1110 | GB | BOE Saporta At ECB Money Market Conference | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1200/1200 | GB | BOE Market Participants Survey | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1215/1215 | GB | BOE Pill At National Agency Briefing | |
| 07/11/2025 | - | *** | CN | Trade |
| 07/11/2025 | - | GB | BOE MPG Agenda Published | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/1430 | EU | ECB Elderson At Bundesbank Event | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 07/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 07/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 07/11/2025 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 07/11/2025 | 2000/1500 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran |
