See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
WEDNESDAY - Australia November Inflation
Australia November CPI is expected to ease two tenths to 3.6% Y/Y, with the trimmed mean measure seen unchanged at 3.3% Y/Y. This will be the second iteration of the "full" monthly inflation release, but both the RBA and ABS have said that it will take time to assess the trends in the new monthly data and for seasonal factors to
emerge. Governor Bullock has said until then it will focus on quarterly CPIs. Q4 inflation data will be released on January 28, and should confirm or allay RBA fears that upward price pressures are entrenched in the economy. There are ~45bps of RBA hikes priced through year-end. By the end of January, the market should have a clearer picture of whether they can expect interest rate hikes in 2026.
WEDNESDAY - Eurozone December Flash Inflation (MNI Preview here)
The Eurozone December flash inflation round has been split across three weeks due to the holiday period. Belgium, Spain and Portugal have already released flash data (Spain was in line with consensus at 3.0% Y/Y), with remaining countries and the Eurozone-wide figure due next week. France and Germany release data on Tuesday, with the Netherlands, Italy and the Eurozone due on Wednesday. Overall, analysts expect only limited moves in the Eurozone aggregate measures. Headline HICP is expected to recede marginally, to around 2.0% Y/Y (2.1% prior), while core is seen unchanged at 2.4%. Across categories, analysts expect the main mover again to be energy, which is seen coming down further into deflationary territory on a Y/Y basis to around -1.5% amid falling oil and gas prices. None of the remaining categories are seen to provide major impetus in December, with services roughly stable around 3.5%, food / alcohol / tobacco marginally firmer at 2.5%, and core goods remaining subdued at around 0.5%. Flash inflation readings have not generated material market movements in recent months. ECB communication has suggested that rates are in a “good place”, and while interest rate changes remain possible, the bar is high in both directions. The ECB projects headline inflation to inch below the 2% target in Q1 2026, while core is seen sticky at an average of 2.4% Y/Y. A deeper undershooting of the target is required to start reconsidering the possibility of another cut.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
Expectations are firmly tilted towards the BCRP holding the reference rate steady at 4.25% in January. Robust activity data and inflation data consistent with the 1-3% target range should keep additional policy easing as unwarranted at this juncture. Furthermore, analysts believe the policy rate will not be used an instrument to lean against recent PEN appreciation.
FRIDAY - China December Inflation
China CPI and PPI data for December is due on Friday. CPI inflation inched back into positive territory in October (0.2%) and November (0.7%), while PPI remains comfortably in deflationary territory (-2.2% in November). Subdued consumer inflationary pressures reflect weak domestic demand trends in mainland China, driven in part by the ongoing slump in the property sector. Stimulating domestic consumption remains a key area of focus for the Government. Meanwhile, deflationary producer prices continue to exert depreciation pressure on China's real effective exchange rate, increasing the international competitiveness of the yuan and keeping DM concerns around Chinese external imbalances at the forefront.
FRIDAY - US December Labour Market Report
Early consensus for December's employment report are for relatively steady readings vs November, with 55k nonfarm payroll gains (64k in Nov) and an unemployment rate of 4.5% (4.6% in Nov), with a slight moderation in participation and an uptick in hourly earnings growth.
This is the last payrolls report before the FOMC's end-January meeting, at which participants would probably require substantially weaker-than-expected NFPs to spur even consideration of a another 25bp cut. That said the December data will carry more signal to the market and Fed than the highly unusual November report, which was both delayed and abbreviated (no October Household Report/unemployment rate) due to the federal government shutdown. Additionally, there were apparent distortions blurring the signal from the data, from the shutdown-driven jump in unemployment, to the new historical low for the household survey response rate and higher standard errors.
We get numerous December employment indicators next week ahead of NFPs, including the ISM Services/Manufacturing employment subindices, ADP private payrolls on Wednesday and the Chicago Fed's final unemployment estimate Thursday. So far, indicators point to a relatively steady labor market overall in December vs November. The Chicago Fed's advance estimate of December's unemployment rate is 4.56% - which would be unchanged from November's unrounded BLS reading. The "labor differential" in the December Conference Board consumer survey its lowest since February 2021 at 5.9, pointing to a continued pickup in the unemployment rate. However, jobless claims data for the reference week were on the lower side of those in recent months (initial 224k, continuing 1,913k in Dec 13 week).
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 03/01/2026 | 1515/1015 | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | ||
| 03/01/2026 | 1930/1430 | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | ||
| 04/01/2026 | 1730/1230 | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | ||
| 05/01/2026 | 0030/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI | |
| 05/01/2026 | 0145/0945 | ** | S&P Global Final China Services PMI | |
| 05/01/2026 | 0145/0945 | ** | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI | |
| 05/01/2026 | 0700/0200 | * | Turkey CPI | |
| 05/01/2026 | 0730/0830 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 05/01/2026 | 0930/0930 | ** | BOE M4 | |
| 05/01/2026 | 0930/0930 | ** | BOE Lending to Individuals | |
| 05/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 05/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | ISM Manufacturing Index | |
| 05/01/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 05/01/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 06/01/2026 | 2200/0900 | * | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI | |
| 06/01/2026 | 2200/0900 | ** | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0001/0001 | * | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0815/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0815/0915 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0815/0915 | ECB Cipollone Chairs Intl Monetary System Panel | ||
| 06/01/2026 | 0845/0945 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0845/0945 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0850/0950 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0850/0950 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0855/0955 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0855/0955 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0930/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI | |
| 06/01/2026 | 1300/1400 | *** | Germany CPI (p) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 1300/1400 | *** | Germany CPI (p) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 1300/0800 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | ||
| 06/01/2026 | 1355/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 06/01/2026 | 1445/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (final) | |
| 06/01/2026 | 1445/0945 | *** | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0030/1130 | * | Building Approvals | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0030/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0030/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | ** | Consumer Sentiment | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0855/0955 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** | Bavaria CPI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 0930/0930 | ** | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Flash | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1000/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | *** | Italy Flash Inflation | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1315/0815 | *** | ADP Employment Report | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | JOLTS quits Rate | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | * | Ivey PMI | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US DOE Petroleum Supply | |
| 07/01/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 07/01/2026 | 2110/1610 | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | ||
| 08/01/2026 | 2330/0830 | ** | average wages (p) | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0030/1130 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Manufacturing Orders | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0730/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | * | Foreign Trade | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0830/0930 | ECB de Guindos Fireside Chat at Next Spain | ||
| 08/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | * | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ PPI | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Unemployment | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | Wholesale Trade | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1600/1100 | ** | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations | |
| 08/01/2026 | 2000/1500 | * | Consumer Credit | |
| 09/01/2026 | 2330/0830 | ** | Household spending | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0130/0930 | *** | CPI | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0130/0930 | *** | Producer Price Index | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Private Sector Production m/m | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | CPI Norway | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | * | Industrial Production | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | ** | Consumer Spending | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0800/0900 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0800/0900 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 09/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | * | Retail Sales | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Retail Sales | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** | Brazil Final CPI | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1245/1345 | ECB Lane Keynote at Danish Economy Conference | ||
| 09/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | Housing Starts | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 09/01/2026 | 1835/1335 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin |