MNI Global Week Ahead: US Data Expected To Resume; UK CPI Due
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
THROUGH THE WEEK - The Return Of US Government Data
As things stand, there is still nothing concrete on revised data schedules, or at least certainly those of any note. The BLS said late Thursday "it may take time" (a Yahoo Finance reporter had earlier suggested an updated schedule could be produced “in the coming days”) and the BEA and Census Bureau are still working on it. Indications remain that we'll get the September nonfarm payrolls report next week, to be confirmed in the BLS update. There are indications that we won’t get the October CPI report whilst NEC’s Hassett implied that the October payrolls report might only see figures from the establishment survey, both of which wouldn’t surprise us. MNI’s re-opening guide from Nov 11 still stands in good stead.
As for data releases that aren't reliant on the federal government, the weekly ADP report will no doubt be watched after notable weakness in the latest release along with flash November PMIs.
MONDAY / FRIDAY - Japan Q3 GDP and October CPI
Next week delivers Q3 GDP (preliminary) Monday. Growth is projected to be negative in the quarter, amid weaker business spending and a drag from next exports. Consumption growth is also forecast to have slowed. Late in the week on Friday, national CPI is out for October. The headline and core measures are expected to tick up slightly, to around 3%y/y. Note that we had Tokyo CPI print for Oct, which was comfortably above market forecast, with all CPI measures ticking back up to 2.8%. This week the October PPI was also slightly stronger than forecast, which also points to some modest uplift in national CPI next week.
MONDAY - Canada October CPI
Canadian CPI (0830ET Monday) is expected to have pulled back in October from September's 7-month high 2.4% Y/Y. Consensus (Bloomberg median) sees October CPI at 2.2% Y/Y (2.4% prior), with M/M at 0.2% (0.1% prior), while the average Median/Trim measure is seen at 3.05% (3.15% prior). A variety of factors are seen behind the moderation, including Ottawa's removal of retaliatory tariffs on the US in September, as well as softer gasoline prices. October's data are unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's assessment at the October meeting that "Looking at the full range of inflation indicators, Governing Council concluded that underlying inflation was still around 2½%." In any case they "acknowledged that year-over-year inflation would be choppy in the coming months" so would be likely to maintain the bias to hold rates for the foreseeable future even in the event of a downside surprise.
WEDNESDAY - UK October CPI
There is more uncertainty than usual around the October CPI print. We have seen sellside estimates for headline CPI that are both above and below the BOE's updated 3.60%Y/Y forecast with an early Bloomberg consensus coming in at 3.5% at the time of writing. The BOE's updated November MPR forecasts lowered its services CPI forecast to take into account almost the entire downside surprise in September. However, there appears to be the potential for some upside pressure from air fares, education and potentially cultural services in this print. In contrast, other forecasters are looking for a more broad-based decline. On food prices, there was a 0.48ppt downside surprise to the BOE's September forecasts, but there was only a 2-3 tenth downward revision to the BOE's October forecast. Most sellside previews we have seen so far see downside risks here and the BRC shop price index also pointed to a sharp decline in ambient food prices. The print will be looked at through the lens of whether Governor Bailey will support a December cut and hence with the market pricing in 18.3bp for the meeting after the soft labour market data, we think that there is potential for a larger move if the data comes in higher than expected. If the data is in line with expectations or softer, we think that a December cut will be on track.
WEDNESDAY - FOMC October Meeting Minutes
We'll be watching in the FOMC Minutes (1400ET Wednesday) for the degree of expressed opposition to October's rate cut and color on the debate over whether to ease any further. At the press conference, Chair Powell highlighted FOMC division over prospects for a December cut: “there's a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle, something like that”, and noted that the meeting minutes would offer some more color on the internal debate. Since the meeting it's been clear that the hawks have become more vocal and arguably more entrenched, with more reluctance to ease any further given the federal data "fog". We'll also be eyeing the discussion around the balance sheet given the meeting's decision to end QT, in particular whether there was mention of potential timing to start reserve management purchases.
FRIDAY - Eurozone November Flash PMIs
The Eurozone November flash PMIs will provide a timely update on economic activity in the region. Recent growth signals have been resilient, with Q3 GDP printing above ECB expectations and the October PMI round pointing to a solid pickup in services sector activity. These developments have contributed to a paring back of ECB rate cut expectations. OIS markets now price just a 30% implied probability of one more cut this cycle. Stronger-than-expected November flash PMIs would likely see these expectations moderate further. Early Bloomberg consensus sees the Eurozone-wide composite PMI unchanged at 52.5 (which would still be an expansionary reading). This reflects a slight pullback in Germany after a strong October, and an uptick in France.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is unanimously expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 6.50% as headline inflation continues to run above the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range. NBH communication will remain hawkish, but there is unlikely to be any new additions to the central bank’s forward guidance. Among sell-side, monetary policy easing is only expected once the elections next year pass.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia announces its rates decision on Wednesday 19 November and could hold or ease as it has reasons for both. Recently it has gone against consensus expectations. In October, it held when it was expected to ease. On the one hand, it may hold if it is concerned about the 0.9% increase in USDIDR since the 22 October decision and renews its focus on FX stability. The pair is currently trading higher than BI's 2026 forecast of 16,430. It may also want to wait for the 75bp of easing in H2 to feed through to the economy. On the other hand, it could cut rates to 4.5% as it still sees room for further easing and has become more pro-growth. Q3 GDP slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y from 5.1% and BI expects it to rise to 5.3% in 2026.
THURSDAY - China LPRs
There seems little chance of any change to the LPR again next week, the last being a 10bps reduction in May. The recently released monetary policy report described the economy as stable and gave an overall sense that policy makers seem in no rush to change policy, preferring to keep options open for the future. Market observers are unanimous in their thinking on LPR's with no change.
THURSDAY - SARB Decision (South Africa)
The SARB holds its first monetary policy meeting after the formal adjustment to its inflation target, which is now +3.0% Y/Y with a +/-1pp tolerance band, as opposed to the previous +3.0-6.0% Y/Y range. As we are heading into the rate decision, it is a close call between a 25bp cut and a hold, with the MPC seeking to anchor inflation at target. There is potential for the October CPI report to tip the balance, with members set to weigh an upturn in volatile components and the prospect of further modest price gains against relatively stable core dynamics.
Note: US Government data releases are still TBD pending an official release schedule.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 15/11/2025 | 1330/1430 |  EU | ECB Schnabel Chairs Panel at Econ/FinStab Conference | |
| 17/11/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** |  JP | GDP |
| 17/11/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 17/11/2025 | 0800/0900 |  CH | Flash GDP | |
| 17/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Euro Finance Week | |
| 17/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 17/11/2025 | 1315/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 17/11/2025 | 1320/1320 |  GB | BOE Mann on DMP and MonPol | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 17/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 17/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 17/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1430/0930 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1445/1545 | EU | ECB Lane Lecture on ECB MonPol | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1600/1700 | EU | ECB Cipollone at ECON Digital Euro Hearing | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 17/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 17/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 17/11/2025 | 2035/1535 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | EU | ECB Elderson at Banking Supervision Press Conference | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1300/1300 | GB | BOE Pill Fireside Chat on MonPol | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 18/11/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 18/11/2025 | 1415/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 18/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 18/11/2025 | 1500/1500 | GB | BOE Dhingra on Income Growth and Consumption | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 18/11/2025 | 2100/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 18/11/2025 | 2300/1800 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 19/11/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 19/11/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly wage price index |
| 19/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer Inflation Report (1dp) |
| 19/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
| 19/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer Inflation Report (2dp) |
| 19/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 19/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 19/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 19/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 19/11/2025 | 1730/1230 | CA | BOC Deputy Vincent speaks in Quebec City (Time TBC) | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1745/1245 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 19/11/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | FOMC Minutes | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 20/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Construction Output |
| 20/11/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 20/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 20/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 20/11/2025 | 1345/0845 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 20/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 20/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
| 20/11/2025 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 20/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 20/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 20/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 20/11/2025 | 1740/1240 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 20/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 20/11/2025 | 1830/1830 | GB | BOE Dhingra Speech on Trade and Tariffs | |
| 21/11/2025 | 2200/0900 | *** | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 21/11/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 20/11/2025 | 2345/1845 | US | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0001/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 21/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 21/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Foro Gran Via | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at European Banking Congress | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 21/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 21/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 21/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 21/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | EU | Negotiated Wage Growth | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1130/1230 | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Deusto Business School | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1230/0730 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1345/0845 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 21/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 21/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 21/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 21/11/2025 | 1540/1540 | GB | BOE Pill in Panel at Swiss National Bank |
