MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI In Focus Amid Ongoing Shutdown
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY - New Zealand Q3 CPI
NZ Q3 CPI prints on Monday 20 October and is widely expected to reach the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% band after rising 2.7% y/y in Q2 but the move is likely to be temporary. Significant excess capacity in the economy should pressure inflation back towards the target mid-point in 2026. The RBNZ's measure of core inflation will also be published and weak pricing power should drive further moderation and keep it within the top half of the band.
TUESDAY - Canada September CPI
The September CPI report will be key in shaping market consensus ahead of the Bank of Canada's October 29 decision. Meeting-dated OIS markets currently assign a ~60% implied probablityt of a 25bp cut. That's broadly back in line with late-September levels, after the much stronger-than-expected Sepetmber labour market report on October 10 temporarily saw implied rate cut odds pull back to ~20%. Headline inflation is seen rising to 2.2% Y/Y in September, from 1.9% in August, but underyling inflation trends are expected to be more benign. The core median measure is expected at 3.0% Y/Y (vs 3.1% prior), while the trimmed series is seen unchanged at 3.0%.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY / FRIDAY - UK Key Data (Including Fiscal and CPI Prints)
It will be another busy week for UK data next week with fiscal data due for release on Tuesday, September CPI on Wednesday and retail sales and flash PMI data due on Friday. Note that these will be the last releases of these data to be included in both the November MPR and the OBR's forecasts for the Budget. The last fiscal data saw a big upward revision to fiscal YTD borrowing, overshooting the OBR's forecast by GBP11.4bln YTD and eliciting a notable market reaction (alongside the stories that broke the same day that the OBR would be looking to downgrade its productivity forecasts). Since then the ONS has corrected data submitted by HMRC on VAT receipts that will reduce the tracking error to a still significant GBP9.4bln. We will be watching the data release closely.
September CPI data on Wednesday should be significant as it expected to mark the peak in CPI. An early consensus looks for headline CPI to come in at 4.0%Y/Y (BOE forecast 3.99%Y/Y) but with services softer than the BOE forecast and energy higher. Food prices are expected to come in closer to the BOE's forecasts. We think that Governor Bailey is paying particular attention to the print as we think he remains relatively open minded regarding the merits of a Q4 cut. A downside surprise would likely reinforce that probability and also further increase the probability that Ramsden and Breeden join Dhingra and Taylor voting for a cut. However, it would still be unlikely to change the mind of any of the four members who dissented in August (Greene, Lombardelli, Mann and Pill). An upside surprise, conversely, could be enough to convince Governor Bailey (and possibly Ramsden and Breeden) that a pause in Q4 cuts may be appropriate.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision (Korea)
The BOK meets next week at a time when the government is focused on slowing the housing sector. Given the government's focus on cooling the housing market, particularly in Seoul, Thursday's release of the September loans to households was relevant to next week's BOK. However with mortgage loans increasing 2.5t won MoM to KRW932.7 tn, there seems to be no immediate impact from policy and this limits the ability of the BOK to cut. Since October the Bank of Korea has cut rates four times going on hold in April, following the release of the initial policy changes by the then new government. The BOK then cut rates in May and as the meeting next week approaches, markets remain uncertain with no rate cuts priced in over a one month time horizon and just -6bps over the next three months. Market consensus is for no change and we also see limited possibility of any change from the BOK.
FRIDAY - Eurozone Flash October PMIs
Analysts expect relatively steady trends in the October flash PMI round, which would be consistent with ECB signalling that growth risks are now "more balanced". That said, with Governing Council speakers keeping the door open to another rate cut if justified by the data, the very front-end of the EUR STIR curve may be sensitive to a downside surprise. Current analyst consensus for the Eurozone-wide readings are a little inconsistent with each other. The composite PMI is expected to ease to 51.0 (vs 51.2 prior), with services expected unchanged at 51.3 and manufacturing seen ticking up to 49.9 (vs 49.8 prior). Composite improvements are expected in France (potentially in response to easing near-term political uncertainty), offset by a pullback in Germany.
FRIDAY - US September CPI
The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations. Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024. Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February. Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings. The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this. As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
Emerging Markets
MONDAY / THROUGH THE WEEK - China Q3 GDP, LPR Decision and CCP Fourth Plenum
Next week could be a pivotal week for policy for the remainder of the year with the loan prime rate decision and GDP third quarter released. The current forecast for GDP 3Q is for it to moderate to 4.7% from 5.2%. The decline from Q2 is likely as much about the upside surprise in Q2, than a dramatic slowdown with 4.7% a somewhat fairer reflection. Exports have rebounded with September expanding by +8.3%, from 4.4% the month prior though retail sales and industrial production out next week also is forecast at the weakest pace of expansion this year. The outlook for retail sales and service related data releases could be revised up following the October Golden week holiday numbers showing a surge in spending on travel and retail, despite long standing property woes. The Chinese party officials meet next week with the fourth plenum in Beijing. The output will provide guidance for the next 5-years and may be the catalyst for further policy intervention, specifically targeting domestic consumption (which has declined as a percentage of GDP) whilst mindful of the impact of the trade war on manufacturing and exports. We don't expect any change in the LPR given the pressure on bank margins and look for signals from the party meeting as guide for potential moves in monetary or fiscal policy.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep the base rate on hold at 6.50% again this month, sticking to its ‘cautious and patient’ approach to monetary policy amid growing calls from government officials for lower rates. Officials are likely to strike a hawkish tone and reiterate their commitment to achieving and maintaining price stability given that headline inflation is expected to remain above the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range in the coming months.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia's decision is announced on Wednesday 22 October and given its recent shift towards supporting growth rather than FX stability, it has become increasingly difficult to read. September was its third consecutive easing bringing rates to 4.75%. It stated in September that its decision was "consistent with joint efforts to stimulate economic growth", so another rate cut this month can't be ruled out. USDIDR reached a high of 16788 in the days following the last rate cut and while it has stabilised around 16570, it remains around 0.9% higher, but this may now not be enough to keep BI on hold.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is expected to moderate its easing pace from the 250bp reduction delivered last month following the sharp jump in monthly CPI in September. That would be consistent with the Bank’s data-dependent forward guidance, as central bank officials have underlined their commitment to ensuring inflation falls in line with the interim targets.
FRIDAY - CBR Decision (Russia)
Analysts are undecided over whether the CBR will continue monetary policy easing with another 100bp cut to the key rate or pause the cycle in October. Last month, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said “we need to proceed cautiously in our decisions," while the policy statement noted that the CBR may need to pause rate cuts. Nonetheless, inflation has remained on a relatively benign path since then.
Note: US Government data releases other than Friday's CPI will not be released due to the Shutdown
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 18/10/2025 | 1130/1330 |  EU | ECB Cipollone Speech at Euro50Group Meeting | |
| 18/10/2025 | 1300/1500 | EU | ECB Lagarde in Economic Outlook Panel at G30 | |
| 18/10/2025 | 1300/1400 |  GB | BOE Bailey at G30 International Banking Seminar | |
| 20/10/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | CPI inflation quarterly |
| 20/10/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 20/10/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | GDP |
| 20/10/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 20/10/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 20/10/2025 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 20/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB Schnabel at Macroeconomics and Finance Conference | |
| 20/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Construction Output |
| 20/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ GDP 4th (Final) |
| 20/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/10/2025 | 1400/1600 | EU | ECB Schnabel Panel at Macroeconomics and Finance Conference | |
| 20/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 20/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 20/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 21/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | EU | ECB Lane at Macroeconomics and Finance Conference | |
| 21/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | government debt |
| 21/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | government deficit |
| 21/10/2025 | 0900/1000 | GB | BOE Saporta Fireside Chat at Islamic Development Bank | |
| 21/10/2025 | 1030/1130 | GB | BOE Bailey & Breeden on Private Markets at Financial Services Regulation Committee | |
| 21/10/2025 | 1100/1300 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote at Norges Bank Climate Conference | |
| 21/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 21/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 21/10/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 21/10/2025 | 1915/2015 | GB | BOE Mann Fireside Chat at Lazard | |
| 22/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 22/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
| 22/10/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 22/10/2025 | 1100/1300 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Barcelona Real Assets Meeting | |
| 22/10/2025 | 1225/1425 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote at Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit | |
| 22/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 22/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 22/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 23/10/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23/10/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 23/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23/10/2025 | 1100/0700 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 23/10/2025 | - | EU | ECB Lagarde at Euro Summit in Brussels | |
| 23/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 23/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 23/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 23/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 23/10/2025 | 1330/1530 | EU | ECB Lane Award Acceptance Speech | |
| 23/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 23/10/2025 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 23/10/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 23/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
| 24/10/2025 | 2200/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/10/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24/10/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** |  JP | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 24/10/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 24/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB Cipollone Fireside Chat on International Finance | |
| 24/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/10/2025 | 1200/0800 | ** |  BR | Brazil Preliminary CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 24/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
